Based on SOTP, the market cap of Golden Energy should be sum of 64.01% of market cap of Stanmore Resources (Aus) and 62.5% of GEMS (Indonesia), 50% of privately held Ravenstock, and some smaller projects. This should work out to S$1.60 per share currently.
Within the next 2 mths, this should reach S$2.00 easily, as Stanmore share price is rapidly on the rise (currently A$2.69, going to surpass its all-time high of A$2.76. Target by 2 analysts are A$3.45 and A$4.86, using different basis)
Widjaja family, should offer at least $1. Realistically, I would expect $1.40. Knowing that they are stingy, maybe an offer of $1.1 tro $1.2 would appeal to some retail investors. But anything less than $1, tells us they are an extremely "rich but smelly" family.
“It is likely that (Gear) might have to offer a higher consideration to reflect its overall business to entice shareholders to vote for the deal,” said Terence Chua, Phillip Securities analyst.
Gear’s major shareholder, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, which owns 77.49 per cent of Gear, has undertaken to support the deal by accepting the exit offer but is required to abstain from voting on the proposed distribution.
There's a good chance the voting will be negative.
Value of GEAR's stake in Stanmore is about 77 sg cents. GEAR exit offer to minorities is only 16 cents. Got plenty of room for a higher offer on this basis. Give 50% discount, so around 35 cents, can ?
DELFI -- Great run from ~70 cents just 6 mnths ago. Now $1.44.
Sugar price is now at all time high. Will this eat into its choc margins or will company be able to adjust marketing expenses without loss of sales?
