Going to stay sideways today and for a few days more... The U.S. stock futures aren't exactly soaring, so tonight's Dow will be either flat or down.
All this is nothing to value investors who have caught a few bargains in the past 2-3 weeks, and are prepared to hold for bigger gains when the EU 's massive greed/debt / financial irresponsibiity issue is tackled and chipped at )(at the expense of Germany, France, etc).
The announcement last week by European leaders was their third comprehensive plan this year. We don’t think this will be their last.
The current plan only provides a temporary relief to the current problem. Investors confident regained not because they see it as a final solution but more the fact that the politicians are more willing to work together under crisis (as we mentioned in our report on 3 Oct 2011 that experience told us that politicians work faster during a crisis).
We have mentioned numerous times the easiest way to get out of the current crisis is for European Central Bank (ECB) to print money. The leaders still rule out this possibility during this summit. But it clearly illustrates to us that they are more prepared to take any means, including printing of money, if things take a turn for the worst. There is still hope.
Dear Forummers,
The storm is starting. Be prepared for the worst.
I hope you can see by now that China has no intention to save Europe. They talk but no real actions. I believe China would prefer to see a divided Europe than a united Europe.
Europe cannot even united to save themselves. EU is bound to break up very soon.
I am looking at a 20% drop for STI in the coming months.
If i u r china, will u help?? it is your mkt, your major mkt down, cannot buy fr u, so i still think China will help,
But like anyone , china like to buy cheap, so why not let euro tumble a while more so i (china) can buy like in a Pasar Malam, cheap sale.
With the decision by Greece to put the euro bailout plan to a referendum, i have change my view that the bottom has past us in 2011.
There might be further downsides to the markets.
The uncertainity will take a long time, the vote will most probably takes place in 2012, with this uncertainity around, why would BRIC invest money into the EFSF?
Remember the ratification process by the 17 euro countries brought much grief to investors due to the uncertainity... This is round 2, however, while the odds for the 17 nations to ratify the rescue fund is high, the results of referedum vote is highly unpredicatble, as good as tossing a coin.
Unless, Papandreou got such a earful from the European leaders that he back down from the decision, I don't see how the debt situation can progress any further from here. And this time round, if the referendum vote is "no" to a bailout, then the worst case scenario is almost certain to happen. When the EFSF is at risk of not being ratified, there can be a Plan B, or ask countries to put it into vote again, but if the greece says no to the bailout, its game over.
I think the markets has not fully appreciate the gravity of this decision given that STI pare its losses as the morning progresses, (most prob due to good results from DBS)
VIX would most probably hike in the coming weeks, and with it, major falls in the markets.
Silver lining??
There might be companies that still perform against the market although the odds against you will be high.
You can try shorting the markets.
If you exit in time, you can find further bargains in time
I will most probably exit the markets after the earning results, as i still believe some of these comapnies will still turn in stellar results.
Good luck, sorry for my long post, I am very lor soh
Greenrookie, adding to the confusion.....
Schaeuble Says Greece Will Fulfill Agreements, FTD Reports
2011-11-02 05:53:59.802 GMT
By Angela Cullen
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Greece will “respect and fulfill” the agreements and obligations it signed up to at last week’s summit of European leaders in Brussels, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told Financial Times Deutschland in an interview.
The second Greek bailout “offers the best guarantee that Greece can regain its health in a manageable way and get back on its feet,” he is cited as saying. “I have always said that if Greece wants to take on the burden and effort of the austerity program, if it wants to stay in the euro zone, then we will support it. This crisis can only be overcome together.”
Cheongwee: If I were China, I would find ways to support Europe which can benefit me in the long-term as it is a major export market. I need some some of guarantee re my investments/financial support. In life, if you have a chance to help someone big who has fallen , he could be v important to your future success.