When 9 out of ten are pessimistic.

  • cheongwee.
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13 years 1 month ago #7166 by cheongwee.
When 9 out of ten are pessimistic. was created by cheongwee.
I think a rally is very likely.
I read an article, the last time poreration twist was in 1961.
And that cause a 40% rally, and follow by a 25% sell off later imn 1962.
stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1960.html
disclaimer........hope a rally coming soon.
actually what ben do is good for mkt, without whacking the dollar further.
mkt will soon discover and rally.

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13 years 1 month ago #7167 by Joes
ok, 4 or 5 months ago, I read yr doomsday scenario regarding Greece & the Pigs and I questioned if you were being over-pessimistic. Now I know you were quite right. This time, I will give you more credit, and I just hope for everyone's sake that your prediction of a rally will come true. In that case, I will take my hat off to you!@

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  • cheongwee.
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13 years 1 month ago #7168 by cheongwee.
Replied by cheongwee. on topic Re:When 9 out of ten are pessimistic.
Yes, i do see a rally coming, a strong rally, but this rally is just a bear mkt rally,i see some 6 months or more rally then mkt continue down.I am still a long term bear, but short term bull.anyway, mkt still can prove me wrong.
but if Greece not cave in, i predict dow to be 13200, end of the year.
i believe the recent low is the low we will not see for the next 2 to 3 quaters, but lower low will be in for 2012.
pessimistic does not mean there are no rally, and rally does not means mkt is OK.
but   2012 will be the year we remember for life.
it is my wish to be wrong, and i wish to be wrong.
 

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13 years 1 month ago #7173 by Dongdaemun
The stock market went lower today, oh boy. If it's any consolidation, the Europe side is strongly up. Hang on tight guys!

European stocks and U.S. index futures rose, reversing earlier declines, while the euro pared losses as finance chiefs including U.S. Treasury Secretary  Timothy F. Geithner  urged more efforts to solve the debt crisis. Copper, gold and silver led commodities lower.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 2.8 percent at 7:20 a.m. in New York, after slipping 1.4 percent.   

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13 years 1 month ago #7174 by Val
Replied by Val on topic Dow up 273 points!
With the US market up 273 points overnight, investor sentiment in Asia should turn up today. Beat back the doom and gloom! It is yet another up - down ride on the markets. Some people think this volatility will continue in the near term. I say, who really knows? There is momentum for real good action to contain the Euro crisis and the market could be in rally mode for weeks *(most optimistic scenario) or at least a few days (probable scenario) before correcting and consolidating for another leg-up.
 

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13 years 1 month ago #7187 by Poh
This one from Phillips is simple and to the point:

We take an eventual Greek debt restructuring as highly likely even if they pass their next IMF review, and identify 2 things that we think markets are looking for to put the Eurozone debt crisis in containment – a plan to put a floor under Italian-Spanish debt, and a bank recapitalization plan in Europe. Then even if we have both, markets may rally, but then refocus on something that’s been damaged in the process – the global economic recovery – it is teetering, and our optimism fading fast. We maintain a cautious-bearish outlook on the STI and S&P500. Other event positives apart from the 2 mentioned that could change our position are an ECB rate cut to below 1% and faster Rmb appreciation.

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