It so simple but this we learn it in school or college. Everything in theory is perfect but in real life situation that is not the case.
Newbiestock,
You believe their expansion will bear fruits next year n be reflected in their p&l. if u can hold until next yr, whatever price u buy this year, even at the 16.3 cents high, shld be able to turn profit next yr.
You're also expecting them to do "something" to exercise the 25 c warrants sometime around end of next year and use the warrants money to pay the debt prematurely.
If their expansion do bear fruits next year, then this is probably the last chance to scoop it cheap below 10 cents.
(Your reasoning is so perfect & simple as 1,000 X 1,000 = 1 million)
In the business world, in industries, factories or constructions it don't add up to that million. Problems can surface here & there. Goods fail QC test, products off-grade, unplan shutdown, safety issue, etc.
There are thousands and one things to consider & anything can go wrong. Examples: shortage workers, skill & unskill, machinery, pumps, equipments, raw material supply, transportation, fuel cost, electricity, increase in rent, competition, etc.
The other area keep up with production to meet demand, excess stocks and problem of disposing goods. Examples: May go for sales, give discount to clear stocks. So end result less than a million.
Production lines after a period of times equipments need maintaining, servicing, overhaul or inspection in order to performs at optimum result.
On the macro aspect are the QE3, the taping, US Goverment partial shut-down. 6 months one year down the road anything can happen, nobody can predict accurately.
My advice is,
If a stock is already sinking or bleeding over many months even on paper it appear so fantastic, then there must be a reason. We can hope or dream. Market know best. Market no FOOL.
Eratat from 15 cents in Mid-May 2013 in 5 months price had fall to 8.8 cents, its a lost of 41%. To recover back just to break even at 15 cents again it has to rise by 70%.
To average down so as to break even faster is to put more money into leaking ship. What happen if you're wrong, then you're in deep trouble. Its not wise to sink more money into a leaking ship.
Very important is to manage the risks. I had listed in my post in Sound Investment if you care to take note.
Knowledge does not equal to Wisdom.
Just take it as an advice, nothing more.