DMG report dated 5 Nov and titled Starry-eyed over upcoming 3Q12
We have reviewed our numbers and believe that our earlier earnings estimates â which were in line with consensus â may be too conservative. As such, we have raised our FY12 earnings estimates by 11%, making us the most bullish on the street.
We are expecting 3Q12 earnings of RMB77m vs RMB45m in 3Q11. Our bullish stance is backed by: 1) Stronger orders for its export
canned foods from Europe, 2) Raised ASP and gross margin assumptions for its asparagus and mushroom canned foods to be in line with 2Q results, 3) Lower opex and finance cost assumptions.
This has resulted in our net margins rising from 14.1% to 15.5%. We change our valuation methodology from sum-of-parts to P/E and derive a higher TP of S$0.65, pegged to 3x FY13F earnings (mean historical trading band). Results will be announced on Nov 6th after market close with a results briefing to be held the following day. Upgrade to BUY.
3Q profits were most surprising. Hope the stock price can run from here on. In the past, solid profit announcements have not been successful in triggering a sustained price rise.