Prepare to buy! What stocks....

cheongwee, we need more good news like the one below. Currently too much v sad news on Europe & US. What, No Gloom & Doom? Economists Back Off Recession CNBC.com | September 08, 2011 | 02:57 PM EDT
The race to the bottom in picking economic growth figures this year seems to have stopped nearly as quickly as it started.

No, that doesn’t mean that economists suddenly believe US gross domestic product will hit the pace it normally would see two years after the end of a recession.

But Wall Street’s biggest names have backed off earlier doom-and-gloom predictions of near-zero growth and now believe the economy at least has a better chance of avoiding an outright recession .

The impetus for the optimism: Thursday’s trade balance report which showed that the US deficit unexpectedly slid to $44.8 billion in July from $51.6 billion in June, primarily on the strength of a 3.6 percent surge in exports.

Nomura Global economist Aichi Amemiya was one of the first out of the gate, pushing his third-quarter forecast from 2.4 percent GDP growth to 2.6 percent.

While not exactly a major vote of confidence for the economy, it reflects at least a departure from some who think another recession is on the horizon.

“All in all, international trade activity in July was much stronger than we had thought which raised our outlook for Q3 GDP,” Amemiya wrote in a note. “Looking ahead, given the deterioration in consumer sentiment and cautious stock building by retailers, weak imports could have kept the US trade balance from widening significantly in August.”

Goldman Sachs [ GS   102.25  -2.54 (-2.42%) ] has helped lead the charge in GDP downgrades, with a forecast of 1 to 1.5 percent growth.

But Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a CNBC appearance on Thursday that he also believes things have improved and the firm is likely to change its outlook.

“We’ve been working with a 1 percent number for the third quarter, but it now actually looks like it might come in a little stronger than that,” he said.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch [ BAC   6.98  -0.22 (-3.06%) ], which began slashing its GDP projections all the way back in April, before the worst of the economic headlines began to hit, softened its position as well.

“The trade deficit for July came in appreciably smaller than expected as exports posted an impressive gain while imports fell,” economist Gary Bigg wrote. “ From a third quarter growth perspective, the narrowing in the trade balance implies a positive trade contribution to real GDP growth.”

The firm has taken its projection up to 2.1 percent for the quarter.

The upward revisions, of course, beg a question: If economists jumped the gun earlier by revising their projections down, might they be doing the same now, only in the opposite direction? After all, it is just one data point, and a wildly volatile one at that.

“With global demand clearly weakening…the prospects of the external sector consistently and significantly supporting GDP growth are slim,” Paul Dales, senior US economist at Capital Economics in Toronto, wrote in a note.

Capital has been fairly consistent amid the downgrade mania, sticking to low growth expectations as the economy grapples with persistently high unemployment and a maddeningly weak housing market.

In holding to its 2.5 percent forecast for the third quarter, the firm sees a technical recession as unlikely as robust growth.

“Overall, while July figures provide further evidence that the economy continued to expand in the third quarter,” Dales wrote, “the outlook for US exports is far from rosy.”
 

Rally! But will it turn down next week?



HONG KONG: Asia-Pacific stock markets extended a global rally Friday after the world's most powerful central banks offered to inject US dollars into lenders squeezed by the eurozone debt crisis.

The European Central Bank and its US, Japanese, Swiss and British counterparts announced Thursday they would act in concert to lend dollars to banks facing a shortage of the American currency.

The move sent European stocks soaring and helped Wall Street stay in positive territory for the fourth day in a row, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 1.66 percent at 11,433.18.

Asian shares followed the lead. Japan's Nikkei jumped 2.25 percent, or 195.30 points, to close at 8,864.16.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rallied 1.91 percent, or 77.7 points, to end at 4,149.4, while the broader All Ordinaries closed up 1.85 percent.

South Korea's benchmark KOSPI index soared 3.72 percent, or 66.02 points, to 1,840.10 and Hong Kong rose 1.80 percent in the afternoon.

"What was good about the liquidity announcement is that the (European Central Bank) has got ahead of the game," said CMC Markets chief market strategist Michael McCarthy.

"By acting decisively, they have averted what could have been a US dollar funding crisis."

cheongwee: what's your updated buy-list for Monday action?
I share with you all mine: Synear Food (possible privatisation play), Oceanus (momentum trading) and Trek2000 (lots of $ to pour in from legal suits). Just my 2 cents worth
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[cheongwee 05-09-2011]:

Joes and all here,,
just to share.
my take....GLP, DBS, ART, MIT, UOB, WILMAR, STXOSV, UOL, 
that is enough for you??
you be happy come december..
i am very sure, we are abt to enter a bull rally.

Viviene
 i was out from most counter with losses, but it will be worst if i have do nothing.
So now , i am in some counter again since last week, STX, Sp Genting, and DBS. with some profit.
Till i see S&P stay abv 1260 and move higher toward or abv 1300, i am sceptical, because evertime 12XX it drop back, Hope this time it is different.
The most i buy high and sell higher. But i still am bearish , i believe US is in recession, only thing that it will be show in the GDP in Jan. 
This rally is not recovery, nothing have recover, ride the relief rally to make up for our loses, i will be out for sure end of this quater.
Wish you luck.

I see Asian markets go up and down like a yo-yo. The volatility is no fun. So far, there’s no strong trend in economic data altho a few months down the road we may look back and say, hey, there is reason for some  optimism about the US cos there is indeed data comng out that is not as bad as expected. Corporate earnings are looking positive. On the other hand, we all must remind ourselves that the future is never crystal clear and the risks with the European situation are still very, very high.

Buy list tomorrow:

a. Gallant
b. Eratat Lifestyle
c. Yanlord
d. World Precision Machinery.