Remember the Asian Crisis of 97..Do not miss the boat again!!!

Yes remember the 97 crisis...but look on the bright side. A few brave souls who invested heavily during the period of 97 to 98 made a fortune. Everyone wanted out whether those companies were in excellent financial shape. Bargains were everywhere but there were no takers. History has repeated itself and now is the time to start investing or re balancing your portfolio. The housing crash will come to an end in the US. It is not really expensive if you were to take the average home price versus the average salary. The bubble is really here is S\'pore real estate market...big time if you were to use the same matrix of affordability. REITs are already selling well below NTA which is pretty conservative to begin with and with average 10% yield to boot and to a high of 19%. Why would anyone in the right mind buy an investment property when huge bargains are to be found in the REITs. Anyway, we already had so many banks (US and Europe only) go under and now we have a major bidding war for Wachovia with Wells Fargo (Berkshire is the largest shareholder) pitting against Citibank. Earlier someone had ask me to predict where the bottom might be and I would say that the signs are here that we are close to it. Maybe we\'ll have another few regional banks, hedge funds or insurer going bust but then there are no more big names to go under as they have all gone , merge or taken over by a bigger well capitalized giant. Even GE is raising capital. The next big one to fall will probably come from EU as they have a less coordinated approached to resolving their problems. Interest rates will probably fall as liquidity is injected into the system worldwide. a global recession will be hard to avoid but in summary after all the toxic is removed from the global financial system, this will set the stage for another long term bull run.

Hi all, this came into my mailbox and I thought that I will share this with everyone...again read this and make your own judgement. Weiss Research has been quoted by CNBC that they predict that 7-8% of the 8000 banks in the US will go belly up in the next 6-12 months. Here is the excerpt... Black October Is Here by Mike Larson Dear Subscriber, The Hunt for Red October was a great movie. Lots of suspense. Great acting from Sean Connery, as usual. And although the special effects could have been better, it was 1990, so I\'ll cut the director some slack. But for the past several weeks, it wasn\'t a red October I was worried about. It was \"Black October.\" I\'ve been worried we would finally see all the credit market problems ... all the economic problems ... and all the tremors in the financial, housing, and other sectors come home to roost — and that the market would suffer a meltdown as a result. Now, it\'s here. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has given up 2,271 points from the last day of September through yesterday\'s close. The Standard & Poor\'s 500 index just suffered the steepest six-day plunge since 1987, and then it plunged another 7.6% yesterday. It has lost 38% through so far this year! Fortunately, You Have Been Abundantly Prepared for This Disaster Martin and I have taken every opportunity possible — here in Money and Markets, in Safe Money Report, and in other venues — to warn you about the very real risk of a meltdown in the stock market. We have urged you over and over to get your money to safety, to dump your vulnerable stocks, and to load up on cash. In the fixed-income arena, I said to avoid long-term bonds, avoid corporate debt, avoid high-yield bonds, and stay the heck away from anything related to the mortgage industry. The rest of the investment world is now clamoring for shorter-dated Treasuries, the same investments Martin and I recommended months ago. Instead, Martin and I recommended short-term Treasuries, the very investment that is in gigantic demand by the rest of the investment world today. In the real estate area, I told you to dump any residential investment property three years ago. And I later warned you the commercial real estate market would be the next to roll over. Lo and behold, REIT shares are plunging, commercial mortgage issuance is drying up, and in many markets, vacancy rates are rising and asking rents are falling. And in the banking world, Martin and I gave you an early heads up about which banks were at an elevated risk of failure. We also told you how to check the safety of your bank, and how to prudently and deliberately move your money to those safer institutions. So I trust that you fortified your portfolio and your finances long ago against the unfortunate, gloomy times we are facing today. If not, it is still not too late to get your money to safety, and we recommend you do so. Here\'s why ... Martin and I have discussed where we\'re going next, and what you should do now. We believe that the economic and market challenges we face are very severe, some of the worst in decades. So we counsel paying down debt and reducing your financial risk in all arenas. With the volatile times we are currently facing, some investors might be tempted into making rash decisions in hopes of recouping their losses in the markets. However, these decisions can end up being very costly. The best investment decision is an educated and well-considered one. With the end of the year approaching and a new political landscape on the horizon, there is truly no better time or place to gather information and reassess your investment strategies with other astute investors than at The Money Show Washington DC. We WILL get through this trying time eventually — and our country will be the better for it once we do. It\'s just a matter of making it from here to there. As for stocks, one of our long-term theses has been very simple: It is likely the broader market will follow the path blazed by the major financial stocks. In other words, the major averages will probably test their bear market lows — at least. This is not some Johnny-come-lately forecast, by the way. It\'s one we laid out in the July issue of Safe Money Report, entitled \"Major U.S. Bear Market Just Beginning to Unfold!\" That was about 2,000 Dow points ago. Specifically, we said: \"If the Dow Jones Industrial Average simply matches the decline that has already occurred in the nation\'s most important sector — banking — it will fall to approximately 7,200 ... In tandem, the S&P 500 could fall to around 770; the Nasdaq, to 1,100.\" Those are our longer-term targets, and we see no reason to change them now. It doesn\'t mean there won\'t be shorter-term oversold rallies ... some that might even last for a couple of months. But it does mean, in our view, that we are in a bear market and that people should invest accordingly. If or when our outlook changes, we\'ll let you know right here. Until next time, Mike

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About Money and Markets For more information and archived issues, visit www.moneyandmarkets.com Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Christina Kern, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood. Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph: This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit www.moneyandmarkets.com . From time to time, Money and Markets may have information from select third-party advertisers known as \"external sponsorships.\" We cannot guarantee the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Money and Markets or its editors. For more information, see our terms and conditions. View our Privacy Policy. Would you like to unsubscribe from our mailing list? To make sure you don\'t miss our urgent updates, add Weiss Research to your address book. Just follow these simple steps. © 2008 by Weiss Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 15430 Endeavour

i thought this is a very smart & effective idea: excerpt of Bloomberg report Oct 12: The purchases of stock, the newest part of a rescue plan engineered by Paulson, would be aimed at sustaining banks and other financial institutions through the worst credit crisis in seven decades. The U.S. Congress last week passed legislation allowing the Treasury secretary to spend as much as $700 billion to buy mortgage securities and other troubled assets and to purchase equity in banks. Paulson declined yesterday to give a timetable or details about the purchases. ``We\'re going to do it as soon as we can do it and do it properly and do it effectively and right,\'\' Paulson said. ``Trust me, we are not wasting time; people are working around the clock to deal with this.\'\'

There have been several ideas floating around. The first of course is to create this USD 700 billion fund to buy up the toxic mortgages from the banks. But the big problem here is that there is no market for these mortgages. what is a fair value? The US govt owes it to the US taxpayers to explain the fair value. On the other hand, the banks probably don\'t want to sell too cheaply. Which is why I believe this idea is dead and no longer brought up by Paulson. The second, is to buy directly into the US banks, hence providing liquidity to the banks directly. In this solution, there is a ready market for the transaction of assets. But it brings out another question. How much is enough? There are more than 300 banks in US. How do you decide which bank to invest how much. Why should the big banks get more than the smaller banks? The last, which I heard from a Harvard Professor, is to solve the root of the problem -- Buy directly the mortgages from the home owners. Guarantee the mortgages of these homeowners and pay the instalments for these people to the banks. Work out an instalment for these home owners that they are comfortable to pay. In this case, the toxic mortgage is guaranteed, home owners get to keep their homes and the banks will not have to write off the bad debts. Some food for thoughts.

Treasuries Lose Favor as Corporates Tempt BlackRock (Update1) By Daniel Kruger Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Investors in U.S. Treasuries are beginning to shift money into corporate and federal agency debt in a sign that the credit crisis may be at its apex. ``We\'ve probably seen the bulk of the gains we\'re going to see in Treasuries,\'\' said Donald Ellenberger, co-head of government and mortgage-backed securities at Pittsburgh-based Federated Investment Management Co., which oversees $21 billion in fixed-income assets. Ellenberger\'s Federated U.S. Government Securities Fund has outperformed 98 percent of its peers year-to- date, according to Morningstar. The flight from all but the safest of government debt has left investment-grade company bond yields at a record 6 percentage points more than Treasuries on average while securities sold by government-chartered enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac yield an extra 1.5 percentage points, also an all-time high, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. What\'s starting to make Treasury bulls wander are signs that the credit freeze may be about to break. The cost of borrowing dollar-denominated loans overnight in London last week fell to the lowest level since June 2004. The Federal Reserve will begin buying money-market securities including short-term company IOUs known as commercial paper today, while the government will start to guarantee new debt issued by banks. Compelling Value ``You\'re starting to see some pretty compelling value, particularly given that you\'re starting to see signs of healing in the financial system,\'\' said Stuart Spodek, co-head of U.S. bonds in New York at BlackRock Inc., which manages $502 billion in debt. JPMorgan Chase & Co. recommended in a report to clients dated Oct. 24 that investors should own a greater percentage of federal agency debt and mortgage bonds, and bank debt securities relative to Treasuries. Barclays Capital said in a report dated Oct. 27 that high-risk and emerging market bond yields ``have reset to more appropriate levels.\'\' Straying from Treasuries each time speculation rose that the worst of the credit rout was over has proven to be unprofitable. U.S. government debt has returned 1.8 percent this year, including reinvested interest, compared with a loss of 17 percent for corporate bonds and a gain of 0.8 percent for agencies, according to Merrill Lynch\'s indexes. ``It\'s time to start nibbling\'\' in securities other than Treasuries, said Maxwell Bublitz, who oversees $3.5 billion in fixed-income assets as the chief strategist at San Francisco- based SCM Advisors LLC. ``We\'ve had so many false starts over the last five or six months, and every time people got whacked. It\'s time.\'\' Record Low The 30-year Treasury bond yield plunged 27 basis points last week to 4.062 percent. It reached 3.8676 percent on Oct. 24, the lowest since regular issuance of the security began in 1977. The yield was little changed at 4.07 percent as of 1:53 p.m. in Tokyo. The price of the 4 1/2 percent bond due in May 2038 fell 4/32, or $1.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 107 11/32, according to BGCantor Market Data. Concern that the economic recession will extend through 2009 and more financial institutions will fail may keep Treasuries from falling, according to the investors. ``If you think fear will rule the market and the flight to quality will continue, than they will probably continue to do well,\'\' Ellenberger said. Many bond investors say they are concerned about the flood of debt the U.S. will sell to finance the budget deficit and bank bailouts. More Supply Gross issuance of Treasury coupon securities will rise to about $1.15 trillion in the 2009 fiscal year from $724 billion last year, according to Credit Suisse Securities USA LLC, one of the 17 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that are obligated to bid at the Treasury\'s auctions. The Treasury will likely reintroduce the three-year note, switch to monthly sales of 10-year notes, and auction new 30-year bonds on a quarterly basis, according to the firm. The U.S. already sold an additional $40 billion of debt to meet demand for government securities on Oct. 8. ``Because of the increased supply in Treasuries we think Treasuries will underperform,\'\' said Gary Pollack, who helps oversee $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG\'s Private Wealth Management unit in New York. ``We\'re looking to deploy that in very high quality corporate bonds and perhaps to the guaranteed bank debt.\'\' PepsiCo\'s Bond New issues, such as the Oct. 21 sale of $2 billion of 10-year senior unsecured notes from PepsiCo Inc., the world\'s largest snack maker, sell at yields exceeding 4 percentage points more than Treasuries of similar maturity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The spread on PepsiCo\'s notes was more than three times wider than the last time the company issued debt in May. Federated\'s multi-sector bond funds have begun selling Treasuries and adding corporates, agency mortgage-backed securities and agency debt, Ellenberger said. SCM\'s Bublitz said he is paring his holdings of Treasuries, after owning a greater percentage compared with his benchmark index, because corporate and mortgage debt is offering some of the biggest yield premiums ever over government securities. ``You\'re getting compensated with a very significant spreads,\'\' said BlackRock\'s Spodek, who is selling Treasuries and buying corporate and mortgage debt. ``Over time we would expect to see these spreads compress.\'\' New York Life Investment Management money manager Thomas Girard, who held 10-year Treasuries until they reached his 3.6 percent target yield, said he is now buying asset-backed securities, residential and commercial mortgage debt and corporate bonds with the proceeds of Treasury sales. ``Even if spreads don\'t come racing in, you\'re clipping a pretty attractive coupon,\'\' said Girard, who helps manage $110 billion in fixed-income assets in New York. To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net

Somebody was asking whether this is the time to buy stocks. Well, at this level, you cannot go pretty much wrong in sticking with the GLC companies right? These companies won\'t die and probably would be the first to rebound.