Oceanus

This stock (up 2 cents now, at 37 ) is going to be volatile over the next 1 or 2 weeks. People are buying ahead of the TDR listing - they have seen the China XLS effect! Let\'s say they push it up to 43 cents. But upon listing this Thursday, will the stock kaput because of massive profit taking? Unless, of course, the stock jumped in Taiwan to 50 cents, or more.....Better be careful at the volatility to come!

Bro, you are spot on I\'m long on this stock, personally I love abalones! Chinese new year cumming for sure the stock will reach 50c. Hooray! I waiting for super big ang pow! Anyone brave enough for 500lts?

500 lots? That\'s nothing if an investor is a super high networth, but dont try it otherwise. It\'s all about risk management. Nothing is a certainty! Analyst report recently is good for education and appreciation. Read on: Potentially higher valuation. Oceanus’ management has indicated that the key motivation for the listing of TDRs is to garner higher valuations given that TWSE trades at a premium to STI (TWSE: 23.7x FY09F and 15.5x FY10F P/E vs STI: 17.3x FY09F and 14.9x FY10F P/E). However, the TDRs are not fungible and thus provide no room for arbitrage, unlike American Depository Receipts (ADRs). Oceanus follows in the footsteps of Medtecs and Eastern Asia Technology, which listed TDRs on the Taiwan Stock Exchange in 2007 and 2002 at a premium of ~250% and ~7% respectively. Changtian Plastic & Company and Action Asia have also proposed to seek a dual listing there. EPS down 9-15%. The 200m new shares represent 11.3% of current issued share capital of 1,765m shares and 10.2% of the enlarged share capital of 1,965m shares. In addition, we expect higher expense in the form of increased finance costs due to the S$73.5m loan from warrant holders. The EPS for FY09F and FY10F are thus revised downwards to 2.86S¢ (-14.6%) and 3.86S¢ (-9.1%) respectively. Lowering target price; maintain BUY. We are lowering our target price to S$0.50 from S$0.52, based on a 20% discount (previously 30% discount) to the peers’ P/E relative to their respective indices, representing a potential upside of 39%. We think that the EPS dilution and higher finance cost will more than offset the potentially higher valuation arising from TDR listing. At this target price, Oceanus will be trading at 17.5x FY09F and 12.9x FY10F P/E, which is less than the forward P/E of TWSE.

That\'s a very high PER put forward by the brokerage. 17x and 12x are not exactly very \"safe\" if you consider that growth prospects may be moderate (one must always prepare for such an eventuality, no matter what the CEO or insiders say). So perhaps, it may be better to search elsewhere for companies trading at lower valuations in order to maintain a margin of safety. Just my 2-cents. Not vested.

Bro! 39c today 50c not far!!! PER is important but herd instincts are more important. I\'m riding it to 50c for sure. Thank you X\'mas and New Year cumming early this year, i trade my log cake for abalones! Cheers!!!

Bro, the problem is that no one can predict the emotional roller-coaster which Mr. Market takes as he appraises the business, and no one can foresee the madness of the crowd as they bid shares of companies to ridiculous valuations. Thinking that you can get out at the very top or even close to it is like trying to strike 4-D or Toto - a lot of luck is needed. Suffice to say there is no margin of safety at these valuations. Purchase if you will, but know this - there is a higher than average chance of a permanent loss of capital if events do not pan out as expected. Cheers!