China New Town

this stock has made a sizzling run. who has been buying?
now approaching nav of 21 cents.

this evening's announcement on transfer of shares....anyone read it?
does it mean that Singapore shares can be sold in HK when the dual listing of cntd happens?

sounds like terrific news.
when the HK price goes up, the Spore price should follow!

Heading for HK soon.
Stock price of 19 cents could run up some more???

Funny how a dual listing can catalyse a stock. Who else will move next ?
 

17 cents now after the froth has subsided. Dual listing in HK is no guarantee of a sustained runup, lah. However, after seeing more of China, I am confident that property plays are good longterm holdings because the country is just gonna need more land for development and for housing.
 

Really oversold at 13 cents. RSI only 32 points.
Risk reward in favour of stock upside to 17 cents. Just my 2 cents.

from Standard & Poor's. cntd is now only 10 cents...

Earnings Outlook / Estimates Revision

- Our 2011 EPS is increased by 8.9% after factoring in slightly higher  selling prices (based on latest achieved auction prices) and we  introduce our 2012 EPS of 10.3 fen. With its Shanghai and Wuxi  projects crossing the initial capital intensive development stage, land sales going forward will rapidly bump up its bottomline and we do not expect land auctions this year to dramatically decline.

- In our view, CNTD’s business model is unique, and their suburban locations aid to ease pricing pressures in the city center. With  urbanization set to increase to 50% in the next five years (from current  46%), latent demand for housing will remain strong. Compared to its peers, balance sheet is healthy, with an estimated 2011 gearing of a low 24.1% while the stock is trading at a P/BV of a mere 0.6x. CNTD, in our opinion, is a viable alternative to the traditional bricks and mortar property developers, especially when policy uncertainties remain.

Investment Risks

- Investors have to be aware that earnings volatility is a real risk as CNTD lacks control over the schedule of land auctions. In addition,  CNTD is subject to the vagaries of local government policies, and any  changes to the socio-economic factors may scupper potential joint ventures. Similarly, tight credit markets will also affect CNTD’s ability to borrow at attractive rates, which is critical, as its projects are capitalintensive  at inception.