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Geo Energy Resources' MBJ road and jetty project has been operational since July and coal from the massive TRA mine is being efficiently moved. |
The 1H2026 briefing takeaways include:
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The big earnings step-up starts from September, not July/August. Management says the major TRA ramp begins once double-trailer trucks are fully deployed in early/mid-September.
At full 2026 run-rate, TRA is targeted to move 800,000–1 million tonnes a month, allowing about 5–5.5Mt of TRA production for FY2026. Combined with roughly 6–6.5Mt from SDJ/TBR, Geo still expects around 12Mt group production this year. -
2027 volume outlook is positive. TRA is targeted at potentially 11Mt in 2027, roughly double 2026.
Management gave a potential 6–7Mt contribution from SDJ/TBR mines, implying a possible 17–18Mt group production next year. -
MBJ seems to be working operationally well. Management says more than 100 trucks are already operating. The old route could take roughly a day for a round trip, versus about 3.5 hours on MBJ, with a target of roughly 2.5 rotations per day.
Management also says using MBJ is already cutting costs by about US$8/t. -
TRA's cost structure could improve dramatically. TRA currently costs roughly the low-US$50s/t using external infrastructure. Geo expects MBJ to bring group-level TRA cash costs down towards the mid-US$30s to low-US$40s, eventually around US$35/t in the long term.
Management expects TRA's strip ratio to remain around 4x through 2027. -
The first real third-party MBJ contract may be close. Geo says it is negotiating with one road user for an eight-year agreement, moving beyond the earlier binding term-sheet stage, and hopes to finalise it within weeks.
This would provide the first evidence that MBJ can earn external infrastructure income, not simply save Geo's own logistics costs.
Management says third-party throughput will be more meaningful from 2H2027, not in 2026.
| All-crucial deal with ResInvest |
6. The ResInvest deal sounds considerably advanced. Management says ResInvest recently completed an on-site due-diligence visit with consultants, discussions have moved onto legal documentation, and management hopes to provide a “very significant update” in the near future.
Crucially, ResInvest is expected to mainly buy some of Geo's existing MBJ shares. 
CFO Adam Tan (photo) and COO Philip Hendry comprised the management team at the 1H briefing.That means Geo itself could receive substantial cash and potentially recognise a large disposal gain—not merely suffer dilution at the MBJ level.
Management sees ResInvest mainly as external validation of the US$1.5bn MBJ valuation.
They stressed that turning a term-sheet valuation into actual invested capital would make MBJ's valuation “far more difficult for our market to ignore”, and referred to ResInvest potentially being an anchor investor for a future MBJ IPO.
Management says the money could fund MBJ Phase 2, and there may also be a substantial accounting profit from selling the MBJ stake.
Debt reduction is not the main purpose of the transaction as Geo generates significant EBITDA.
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7. Management is signalling more dividends and potentially more buybacks. Geo reiterated its policy of returning at least 30% of profits to shareholders and said stronger profits have previously led to payouts above 30%. 8. Management thinks coal-price conditions remain favourable. They say TRA coal is attracting strong demand and may sell at a premium of a few dollars to the benchmark. 9. The feared Indonesian export-policy risk appears minimal. Management says it sees no indication that Danantara will take control of coal exports; rather, it views the government's objective as preventing under-invoicing and improving compliance. |
→ See also:GEO ENERGY: Is ResInvest news the next big share-price catalyst?
