You might have to take note that while the revenue is going to decrease by 20 - 25%. Its cost doesn't reduces. I am not too sure how much of the toll are related to industrial and commerical users like lorry, truck... the slowdown in export might affect the traffic and this time round, guangzhou appear to be one of the worst hit. The current dividend yield of 5.5 cents per share is not sustainable. This resulted in a lot of uncertainty.
I believe you are just basing on their negative report follow by other financial negative report, and did not do any calculation yourself. I don't see the basis for the 20~25% decrease in the revenue for the toll rate adjustment. As the toll rate for HuaNan Phase I have reduce from 0.75 to 0.6, that is a 20% decline in the collection. For HuaNan Phase II there is no reduce in the toll rate. Thus if everything remain the same then the decline in revenue should be the same. But for basic economic principal you know that when the price reduce your demand will increase. Talking about slowdown, I believe you are talking about big cooperation, but small company their business should be very good, as many of our supplier are overload with order that they did not even borther to our quotation request...
Beside that if the company think they are in risk will they buy back their own share? They have totally buy back 21.9M of their own share at an average of 0.56cts for the first half of the year, which is equal to S$12.4M.
I just don't understand why the unsubstanable divident come from, the 2.75cts was given since last year first half and the result of this year first half and last year first half the increase is already 28%, and the focus of Hua Nan risk, but Hua Nan only contribute to 37% of its revenue. When last time when they pay out the divident at 4cts half yearly, their revenue is not as high as current.
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[Guest 28-08-2012]:
You might have to take note that while the revenue is going to decrease by 20 - 25%. Its cost doesn't reduces. I am not too sure how much of the toll are related to industrial and commerical users like lorry, truck... the slowdown in export might affect the traffic and this time round, guangzhou appear to be one of the worst hit. The current dividend yield of 5.5 cents per share is not sustainable. This resulted in a lot of uncertainty.
If you read the presentation carefully, it is NOT only changes in the toll rate but also the methodology in calculating the distance for both For HuaNan Phase I & II which result in the 20% drop in revenue. Having the money staying in bank and earning less than 1% interest is not efficient. Which is way they have choose to re-invest these fund through share buy-back from the market. And some shares may not be totally cancelled and can be used as treasury stock as stock-option for staff. It is already clearly mention that cashflow and proceed will be affected come FY13 which will affect the dividend payout. It is in the OUTLOOK. As for the china economy very clearly the GDP announcement by China is all make up. Major economy like Japan, Korea, Taiwan should have significant trade with China ALREADY report DROP in export to China...
1. Slip road is just the road before the car entering into the expressway or leaving the expressway, the total length for huanan phase I is around 15.6km and phase II 15km, the distance of slip road is just a very short distance compare to the actual lenght of the expressway, thus how much influnce can this affect the toll rate. 2. the toll rate for phase II is not affected as mention and phase I it is reduce from the 0.75 to 0.6cts per km, thus the phase I have reduce by 20% only As for "Having the money staying in bank and earning less than 1% interest is not efficient", who will believe macquerie group which is a global player in banking and investment was unable to get a better return from just leaving money in the bank? It is definitely more attactive for them to invest in MIIF then other share, commodities etc, for them to decide the daily share buy back As for the GDP of China is make up?? I don't see the reason for other country export to china decrease have will cause the China to make up the false GDP. As GDP is the Gross Domestic Product, the formula are as follow: Y = C + I + G + (X â M) Where M is the import, thus when the import reduce, which means the country GDP have increase. Thus where is your basis for the false GDP declaration?