Mark Mobius, the Franklin Templeton executive who pioneered emerging markets investing, expects Europe's debt crisis to be resolved in the middle of next year, sparking a rise in global bourses.
"The European crisis isn't as deep and terrible as people think," Mobius was quoted as saying by Valor. "Nations there are in a process of negotiations and that takes time."
Yipee! Singapore stocks should rise when the market reopens. Any sentiment gauge would show that investors are more hopeful, more positive for various reasons, including the US economy which is looking up.
The Dow rose 124.35 points, or 1%, to 12,294. Up 3.6% for the week and 6.2% for the year. How can the Straits Times index be still down double-digit?
Without sounding too extreme and crazy, I am of the view that 2012 may witness a super bull rally.
I did my homework and have my rationale for making this claim. While it may not go down well with the so-called expert analysts opinions in the banks and broking houses, I am of the opinion that 2012 will be extremely good for the equity market.
This is a change from my stand in June 2011. I was anticipating a big crash (which I believe it will come soon) and the global economy to slump for 24 months.
However, I have relooked into my model and scenarios after talking to many many people in the market.
I will not say too much. One biggest reason for my take -- There is excessive liquidity in the equity market. The hedge funds have almost exited the equity markets. Those holding stocks are the long-only funds. With the right catalyst, this excessive liquidity will be loaded into the markets again.
Merry X'mas and a blessed New Year ahead for all forummers.
Mark, wake up! The euro crisis is for real. Don't dream of an easy resolution.
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[abb 23-12-2011]:
Mark Mobius, the Franklin Templeton executive who pioneered emerging markets investing, expects Europe's debt crisis to be resolved in the middle of next year, sparking a rise in global bourses.
"The European crisis isn't as deep and terrible as people think," Mobius was quoted as saying by Valor. "Nations there are in a process of negotiations and that takes time."
Dear Viviene;
Facing the high possibility of being slapped in the face and laughed at, I have to admit that I concur with Mr Mark Mobius.
We hear and listen to a lot of the media news. BUT many a times, the media has always been sensationalizing news, bringing news to the extreme.
If you read the reports by the economists in the banks as well as the analysts, you will realise that they are assuming the worst possible scenario. If everybody knows this is the worst possible scenario, that means there is a way out.
The worst only happens if not everybody thinks it is the worst -- similar to the Lehman Brothers and subprime. Everybody thinks Fed will not let Lehman collapse. And when it did, it caught everybody offguard and the equity market sees a meltdown.
Expect the unexpected in 2012.
sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l...p=e200,e50,e20&a=&c=
From the S&P 500 chart, the 20-day moving average has already crossed the 50-day since last month. Is this a tell-tale sign of recovery? I wonder there are going to be a rally in the world markets in the near term? Wish all investors have a prosperous Dragon year ahead & Gong Hei Fatt Choy!
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