JInraidx,
First of all, I ask my questions in sincerity and not trying to bulldoze any agruments.
1) What are the "not strong" red flags that you have spotted? Please share.
2) Given that 3 strong quarters are in the bag, It is very unlikely that they will not given out the dividends, given the strong cash position, and the high utlisation of capacity. If they can maintain their earning in a weak quarter (Jan- Mar), chances are more likely than not, Q4 is going to be ok. Why? If you look at various textile companies, there are a handful(I didn't have the time to check all), like china FibreT, Fuxing, etc that although they reported strong (YoY) growth in revenue, the QoQ growth is actually negative, of course there are also exceptions like foreland. This prove that Jan-Mar period is indeed an weak quarter, yet Qingmei is able to increase revenue, which means capture more demand. Although this might be at the expense of lower prices, at least it shows its demands for the soles are still robust and there should not be reasons for sudden fall in earnings. 2nd result, if you visit the Ctei website,
data.ctei.gov.cn/sjzx_honggsj/sjzx_honggsj_xse/287223.htm
, you will realised, that the sales for textile apparrels and shoes in still increasing in Jan-April 26.8% higher than than same period in 2010. of course that doesn't mean Qingmei can capture these business opportunties but the external and macro market is still rather favourable. Of course, the website also mention that cost for raw materials have continue to climb and has make it risky for some SME companies to receive orders for fears of making loss, but that news article also emphasied is now that demand has dried up, rather, management of costs has been an heachache.
3) Therefore, it might be possible that Q4 earnings might be below expectations due to cost management issues, but with demand still robust, and that QIngmei can rough out Jan-Mar, chances are in the worst case scenario, investors might have to make do with lower dividends, but not no dividends.
4) As for post dividend performance, well, that will be 3-4 months down the route, and i think there are too many factors affecting prices and the effect of dividends will be just 1 of them