sino grandness - undervalued stock

The probability of Garden Fresh being a scam may be low.

In its report dated 25 April 2013, DMG stated that 40% of Garden Fresh is sold through modern channels such as supermarkets. Since then, convenience stores chains such as 7-Eleven and Hongqi have also joined in selling the drinks. These renowned retailers are unlikely to waste their shelf space carrying slow-moving items.

Before lending to Garden Fresh, the two groups of bondholders were likely to have a rough idea, through observations at the modern channels, of the saleability of the drinks.

It should be noted that the second group, led by Goldman Sachs, imposed less stringent conditions.

If it is mandatory for the IPO process to have an independent survey to determine the market share of Garden Fresh drinks, Sino ought to be reasonably confident of the drinks passing the test.

Mr Huang Yupeng has to remain as Sino's controlling shareholder before the successful listing of Garden Fresh. Sino's higher share price is of no consequence to him now, as he cannot sell his shares. His first taste of profit will be after the listing of Garden Fresh, which by then is a verfication and vindication that Garden Fresh is real. He gains nothing by perpetrating a ploy to drive up the share price of Sino.

Sino Grandness is taking part in a major trade fair tomorrow. Lots of distributors will have a chance to sample its snack foods for the first time. The snacks will be marketed under the “Garden Fresh” label too.

I hope the snacks go down well with the best-selling loquat juice!

Fidelity has become a substantial shareholder of SINO GRANDNESS !!!!

re FIDELITY > Not surprising when PE is only 6X and the theoretical stake tht Sino Grandness will probably retain in Garden Fresh has a current theoretical value exceeding the value of Sino Grandness itself now.

-- but the stock is muted this morning at 70.5 cents.

I'd like to share Maybank's initiation report published in 1Q this year.



Sino Grandness could be worth up to SGD2.52 (158% upside) on our best case scenario and SGD1.31 (34% upside) on the worst case scenario, with potential 20% downside even if the listing does not take place.

The shares have doubled since 2012 as the market factored in good progress toward a successful spinoff but the odds are still good as a recent share placement drew in new institutional investors.

We initiate coverage with a BUY and target price of SGD1.60 pegged to 6x FY13F PER. Sino Grandness is still in the early stages of a multi-year growth cycle and the impending listing of its main growth engine will see it valued higher as a separate unit, unlocking substantial value for shareholders.

Multi-bagger in the making. The biggest catalyst for Sino Grandness is its plans to list wholly-owned juice subsidiary Garden Fresh in Hong Kong by October 2014.

Sino Grandness is a potential multi-bagger given the huge valuation mismatch between its current single-digit valuations and comps in Hong Kong that trade at 20-30x earnings.

Sino Grandness has put in huge efforts to achieve that goal by October 2014, including the setting up of two new production bases, the opening of new distribution channels and several rounds of fund-raising from strategic investors Sun Hung Kai and Goldman Sachs (convertible bonds) and Asdew Acquisitions (new shares at SGD0.82 a share).

Tapping into a “juicy” market. The food & beverage sector in China has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of the country’s dramatic economic growth over the past two decades. Sino Grandness has chalked up profit growth of 63% p.a. since its IPO, mainly driven by its three-year old juice business.


Loquats

However, it is still in the early stages of a multi-year growth cycle. The fact that the juice business now accounts for half of sales in just three years underlines its boom potential. We believe the best is yet to come.

Its astute market positioning and low base will enable it to continue to drive strong double-digit top and bottomline growth.

When will the 3Q results be released?