GuocoLeisure

25 September 2009 LIM & TAN SECURITIES PTE LTD GUOCOLEISURE 􀁺 Contrary to market speculation, we would rule out a second privatization attempt of the company by Quek Leng Chan. (GuocoLand is QLC’s only other listing in Singapore.) 􀁺 The key reason is that circumstances today are vastly different from 2005 when QLC \"had\" to act to ensure he retained control of BIL as GuocoLeisure was then known, but not total control. 􀁺 Oei Hong Leong On Aug 17 - That \"helped\" lead to QLC raising his offer price on Oct 2 - As we had then expected, QLC’s bid \"failed\" (pretty much like Wee Cho Yaw’s bid for UIC earlier this year) with him ending with just over 50% when the offer closed on Oct 21 ’s 9% bloc in BIL then, which was acquired in 2002 when Temasek sold out?Recall the following:-th ’05, he sold his remaining 101.2 mln shares at $1.25 each, after selling 22 mln shares a month before, at $1.20 each.nd ’05, from $1.20 to $1.25 per share.st ’05, just over 3 months after the takeover was first triggered. We maintain BUY, but keeping an eye on likely resistance at $1.00 (which would still be at a discount to book NAV).

Interesting & bullish analysis by nick90 at www.shareowl.com : Ist Qtr results out within expectations considering that the UK market is stilll weak. Like to point out that Royalty from Bass Straits is still very healthy. Annualised probably will exceed US$40 million this year. Remember Royalty is 2.5% of all oil and gas from Bass Straits in perpetuity( that means until the wells run dry) NAV for this gem of an asset is recorded at US$111 million , amortised over 25 years. If you consider that the asset is generating at US$ 40 plus million annually and only valued at US$111 million in the books, it is definitely very undervalued. Likely that oil price will stay above US$ 70 is very strong. 16 hotels now owned and leased at US$ 1123 million is fairly valued( most in London with two in Malaysia) GBP stabilised against US$, so likely less impairment. Probably will write back substantially after next year, prelude to the London Olympics. Bulk of casino license cost taken out last year , so going forward it will be a profitable operation. Overall , a pretty healthy picture. If you believe in the astuteness of QLC and that UK market will be improving moving towards Olympics, then this is still a good medium term investment. Remember, there has been prior unsuccessful attempt to take this company private at $1.25. Obviously, they must have done their sums and value the assets much higher .

Does anyone reckon that the tourism industry in London will pick up strongly? GuocoLeisure depends a lot on the tourism traffic whcih probably will rise - after all the big picture is that economies are recovering. This stock is greatly undervalued as the NAV is USD 73 cts while the stock price is 66 cents only. Anyone has the same view or a different view? Vested at 40 cents.

Previously bought 100 lots at 0.50 and sold at 0.73, now re-enter at 0.66.... potential a dollar stock!

des_khor: so are you holding till $1? it\'s up 2 cents now... @ 68 cents. Very strong vol of 6.5 m shares. Am thinking of waiting till London Olympics - the tourism traffic will hit a high and hotel rates will shoot up.....:laugh: Maybe can fetch $2 for GuocoLeisure

Singapore investors are betting on London recovery.....\"London’s hotel market is leading the recovery in European hotel performance after 13 consecutive months of decline, research has revealed.\" See report www.caterersearch.com/Articles/2009/12/0...european-hotels.html