Duty Free Intl. Investors anyhow sell?

Duty free international has fixed deposit of around $2.8M SGD and $42M USD sitting in the bank.

Now, when ringgit is weak, the $2.8M SGD and $42M USD will translate to higher Ringgit so it is treated as profit as in 3Q 16. Profit of $9.572M Ringgit forex gain.

In Q3 17, ringgit rises. So the same $2.8M SGD and $42M USD will translate to lower Ringgit so it is treated as loss of $7.538M Ringgit.

The fact is the money is still there, the " loss" is a accounting treatment becos duty free reports in Ringgit , so the same amount of SGD and USD is still sitting in the bank but their value in terms of ringgit is lower. So this is an accounting treatment and it does not mean real loss.

Next. Minus away the Forex factor (which is variable becos ringgit can rise or drop.)

In 3Q/16, the " real" profit is $22.295M - $9.572M = $12.7M Ringgit (during 3Q/16, the exchange rate was 3.15RM = 1 SGD), so $12.7M ringgit = $4.03M SGD

In 3Q/17, the " real" profit is $4.577M + $7.538M = $12.1M Ringgit (during 3Q/17, the exchange rate is 3.02RM = 1SGD), so $12.1M ringgit = $4.01M SGD

So the real profit drop by a neglibible $0.6M ringgit only. BUT becos Ringgit rises, in terms of SGD, the profit in SGD term is considered the same.

I dunno why today the investors over react? Maybe BBs trying to scare those investors who do not know the real facts?

Duty Free International was listed as DFZ Capital in bursamalaysia and was bought over by Atlan I think in 2005 (if my memory serve me right) prior to 2011 listing in SGX, Attached is the dividends given out by them.
As u can see, even during Lehmen brothers 2008 to 2009, they were giving out dividends. So I dun think they have trouble giving out dividends in the long term , especially now they are cash rich and zero debt.

Information can be obtained from www.sgx.com and www.bursamalaysia.com

Yah, I went in to pick up some more when the market fell out of love with DFI!

As value investors, our frame of reference should be the business' intrinsic value; not rumours that always go around to scare us.

If the market weren't so fickle, how to make money?

klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/43553.jsp

Maintain BUY

3QFY2/18 results were in-line but third interim net DPS of 10.0sen (YTD: 21.0sen) was above our estimate. Earnings growth was mainly held up by the duty free and property segments. Our FY18-20 earnings forecasts and MYR6.00 SOP-TP are intact.

Duty free segment largely stable

Excluding one-off items totalling to -MYR6.6m (i.e. forex loss, fair value gains), 3QFY18 core net profit was MYR8.2m (+13% YoY, +5% QoQ), bringing 9MFY18 core net profit to MYR27.4m (-11% YoY) and accounting for 69% of our full-year estimate. Results were within our estimate as we are anticipating seasonally stronger 4QFY18 earnings. YoY, 3QFY18’s core earnings were held up by (i) marginally higher revenue at the duty free segment due to better product and sales mix (i.e. at the airport and bordertown outlets), (ii) sustained profit at the property and hospitality segment. This, however, was partly offset by (iii) slower automotive profits due to higher material costs and maintenance expenses, and (iv) a higher effective tax rate of 32% (excluding one-offs; 3QFY17: 25%).

Earnings estimates unchanged

We maintain our core earnings forecasts. However, we raise our net profit payout forecast to 135% from 100% for FY18 but maintain our conservative FY19-20’s estimates at 100% p.a.. This results in FY18/19/20 net DPS of 21.0sen/16.1sen/16.6sen.

Partnership still positive

DFI’s partnership with Heinemann [via its wholly-owned subsidiary, Heinemann Asia Pacific (HAP)] has remained favourable and resulted in positive, synergistic impact in areas such as (i) transportation costs - down 63% YoY to MYR1.4m for 9MFY18, and (ii) inventory – down 23% YoY to MYR166m (end-3QFY18). We believe there are more operational potentials to be realised from the partnership which could translate into positive earnings impact.

Source: Maybank Research - 12 Jan 2018

klse.i3investor.com/blogs/nanyang_stock_expert/144392.jsp

最新进展：

业务表现不理想和蒙受外汇亏损，拖累益联控股（ATLAN，7048，主板工业产品股）截至11月30日第三季，净利按年锐减90.35%。

益联控股第三季净赚161万令吉，或每股0.63仙，但营业额却按年攀升2.45%至1亿8607万令吉。

行家建议：

第三季业绩符合预期，因为一般上末季盈利会走高。

扣除单次项目660万令吉，核心净利其实是820万令吉，按年起13%，按季增5%。

累计9个月核心净利则是2740万令吉，按年跌11%，占全年预测的69%。我们维持目标价和今明后财年盈利预测不变。

反而，10仙净每股股息超出预期，因此调高今财年净派息率至135%，但维持2019及2020财年的100%预测。

另外，新加坡上市子公司免税国际公司（DFIL）与Heinemann亚太公司合作良好，带来协同效应。

交通成本按年降63%至140万令吉，库存按年减23%至1亿6600万令吉。

相信接下来还会有更多可实现的营运潜能，可能会推高盈利。

A declining market may be blessing in disguise for duty free as investors now looking for more resilient and more defensive dividend stock and duty free should benefit. Afterall when market bull run , duty free never benefitted from a bull market as it is deemed too "boring". Now with market dropping, maybe is time for duty free as a high yielding defensive stock to shine.