cheongwee

ok, by starting this thread, i see you are a credible guy

Cheongwee, your posts have been interesting. Can't help reading them. I think you have your style of investing and you have been successful.

To make it absolutely crystal clear that you dont ding dong etc,  I suggest you quickly state date of purchase + price after you have bought a stock you want to highlight. and when you sell, quickly say so and state date of sale + price.

I am a fan too. Well i do not follow your trades but i do agree i do enjoy reading your posts and insights.
 
No more postings ??

I think he is away on holiday. Vaguely remember him making a posting on that, so his legions of 'fans' will not wonder why there are no more postings fr him.

cheongwee: what do you think of this?

U.S. stocks rallied Thursday, lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its best day of the month and into positive terrain for the week, after the European Central Bank signaled its intention to preserve the euro.

“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro,” he said at an investor conference.
Bond yields in Spain and Italy plunged, temporarily removing a recent drag on sentiment. Spain’s 10-year note yield fell back under 7%.

Nobody can know what the morrow will bring. Those news you read are reported by reporter base on what he know, or what the authority want him and you to know.The only guy to know the actual fact are the CB. We can only predict.
 
The GDP report are reported in the last week of the month following the end of the quater., like the one coming out tonight. The next report will be somewhere around Fourth week of October for Q3. I believe this Q3 when reported in last week of October have a high chances of showing ---ve growth. If not then Q4 will definitely for sure show -ve.
 
I will sell first, that is my opinion. You do your diligent.
 
So what can we do? Even for those who long, what shd we do? If GDP show -ve, what u think will happen? If this come about , stock will collapse fast, that is for sure. So either i stay or i bailout first, and wait it out. And buy back cheaper later, or shd i just stay and see my counter go down, and later ave down more.
 
If we are right, recession hit, we save our investment from depreciating, if we sell before Q3 report, because stock will drop fast and we got no time to sell. If we are wrong, the most we lose some and jump back in and continue the ride up.
 
But if you lose, most likely it is going to be heavy, I do not long any stock, but i do suggest if you do long, sell first, and side line, and wait for recession, because to me, a recession is a sure thing., just a question of when?
 
And i think it is 60% to be in Q3 and 90% in Q4( this Q4 will be reported in the last wk of January) But i think the recession maybe a mild one like ECRI stated in their report. So i am hoping it will happen in Q4 so we can make more .
 
Even if you long, you know that stock will go down, if recession hit, Then why not sell first and buy back cheaper, instead of waiting to buy more to average down, while seeing your current investemnt going down in value.
 
We do agree that stock go down faster than it rise. So sell to strength and wait for 2013 to buy cheap. I believe we can buy cheaper then 2009 in end 2013. Patient will see gain, but will you dare to buy when we are there? 
Tonight if GDP is not within expectation, mkt will come down big. So I sold most of them yesterday and today. Except for some penny which is recession proff for now.