Greenrookie, It's good to have a clear idea why we do things as that enables us to sleep better at night. In my many years of investing, I learnt many lessons. One of them is, stay nimble, stay flexible, because the market is too complex, even individual stocks are too complex in real life.
They can go in a slightly diff direction, or in a significantly diff direction, or in a completely diff direction from what we expected (based on our rational analysis).
A stock which I liked a lot went from 25 cents all the way to above $1 in 2 years, then came slipping down over the past 2 years to just 20 over cents.
Yeah, have a good laugh. Or maybe you can also share a similar experience
Abb, agree that we shoud be flexible. Last Oct, the Eurozone was abt to collapse ( though PIIGS problems were known abt one yr earlier, unlike ‘07 subprime which even caught rating agencies off guard ) and ppl did not know if US will double dip. Today US corps are recording great profits/dividends, improve housing starts etc and EU has LTRO, banks have written off most Greek debts etc.
I think the recent Greek/French elections are good excuse to trigger correction. The markets can’t keep going up and May mth is perfect , just after US 1Q corp. results. I think the news ahead will be terrible in most days until the US 2Q corp. results early July when the news may miraculously be sunny again. This is good chance to slowly accumulate large/mid caps which have dropped a lot. Be prepared for shorties too . My views only.
relaxing -- You talked about 'slowly accumulating'. Sounds like my neighbour this morning --- first thing he said was, "hey opportunity to buy hor? stocks look cheap."
Kevin Scully also said the same thing last Friday >>
Stocks as an asset class based on current earnings forecasts are cheap with many stock markets trading near the low end of their trading range......
Bottom line, no need to panic when markets fall - view it as a buying opportunity - take the time now to identify which stocks and what levels you want to BUY and wait patiently.
My gut feel is that investors who have lived through the last 4 or 5 years at least, now recognise that crashes are the time to buy. Get ready your bullets! Choose your targets well!
My targets include HIAP HOE (51 C), WORLD PRECISION (49 C), TECHNICS O&G (88 C), DUTY FREE INTENATIONAL (33 C).
Abb – ya, it does sound like a cliché LoL. I was half cashed up before the recent French/Greek elections and I am excited to be able to buy good stocks at discounted prices. In fact I am allocating more fresh funds as I think the Eurozone will somewhat stablised by end June. I have started accumulating and hopefully will complete within few weeks as it’s difficult to time the bottom. Eg the market can turn anytime if they agree on Eurobond roadmap.
I missed out on the great ’87 Dow crash , but I have lived through the ’97 Asian Financial Crisis and ’07 US Subprime fiasco. During these crisis, S’pore private property prices dropped by a third with retrenchment everywhere. Over time, the index recovered so if you hold solid stocks with cash you can afford, why worry. Best is to stay away from S- Chips ( I think only abt 10% have potential or are well run? ) and definitely no speculative pennies. Stick with large/mid caps with attractive 2013/14 PER as they will be the first to rebound when market turns. My views only.
Here is a Big One for you, relaxing.
Published May 24, 2012
Dow Jones Newswires
LONDON – Greece will leave the euro zone on Jan. 1 2013 and its new currency will immediately fall by 60% against the euro, unleashing a sizeable and unavoidable wave of contagion across Europe, Citigroup said late Wednesday.
In a note to clients, the world's second-largest currency trading bank said the consequences of a Greek exit--or "Grexit"--would accelerate strains in the European banking system and probably force the European Central Bank to restart its long-term refinancing operations and halve its interest rates to 0.5%.
"We expect that Grexit will be followed by a series of policy responses aiming to prevent a domino-style collapse of the banking system and escalating economic disruption," Citigroup economists said in the note.
Citigroup said the probability of Greece leaving was now between 50-75% and added that a Greek exit would become its base case unless next month's elections stabilised the situation.
Abb - This joker reporter knows exactly when Greece will leave Eurozone ( 1-1-2013 ) while even Merkel or Hollande don’t. Then in last para reporter said maybe 50 to 70% but will also depend on coming Greek election. Even she is confused LoL.
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