Noble Group

In a share buyback yesterday, Noble whacked 8.5 million shares at $1.197 a share. The market is .... not impressed. Now trading lower at around 1.17. What's a good safe entry point?

The popular chairman also bought back shares to support the stock price and to address the negative psychology of the market. Don't read too much into that. His huge net worth is on the line, so he would buy shares. Let's see how much he dares to buy.

Time to offload Noble? Was $1.05 a week ago, now nearly $1.20. The chairman hasn't been buying, right?

HSBC has just upgraded Noble ($1.34 yesterday) to neutral from Underweight.

While earnings risks from extreme volatility remain and an announcement of a new CEO is yet to be made, we believe the current PE of 10.7x FY12e earnings adequately reflects these risks. It is at a 31% discount to its 3-year PE mean and 23% below the Singapore market. We raise our TP from SGD1.41 to SGD1.51 to reflect higher peer multiples in our equal-weighted DCF (WACC 10.8%, 1% terminal) and peer PE valuation model. With 17.5% potential return upgrade to N(V) from UW.

Tuesday, 10 July 2012 12:18
Citigroup upgraded palm oil firm Wilmar International to ’buy’ from ’neutral’, citing cheap valuations but cut its target price to $4.80 from $5.30 to reflect lower 2012 earnings.

“While there may be one more choppy quarter to go in this cycle, the worst of the negative revisions cycle should be over by the second quarter,” it said in a report.

Wilmar’s earnings are expected to show some recovery in the second half, and its oilseeds processing margins should also improve, Citi said.

At 12:09 p.m., shares of Wilmar were down 0.8%t at $3.58, and have lost 28.4%t since the start of the year, versus the Straits Times Index’s 11%t gain.

Olam’s shares rose 1.4%t to $1.86, but have fallen 12.7%t this year.

The broker also cut its target price for Olam International to $2.75 from $3.10, citing growing competition in the sector and lower return on equity expectations due to a longer gestation phase for its assets.
Noble Group remains Citi’s top pick among Singapore trading companies, and it has a ’buy’ rating and target price of $1.68 on the commodity company.

I think Noble will report an earnings recovery in 2Q. It will be supported by contributions from its new sugar mills in Brazil.

I have doubts about Olam's 2q.  Let's see hor?