There will be plenty of market moving news this week. The earliest being the Japan GDP data, an contraction of less than 2.7% would likely smoothen sentiments, and US will release data of housing market index and tues industrial production index.. And there are more to come
mobile.washingtonpost.com/rss.jsp?rssid=...mobile&cid=459&spf=1
So we will see very soon if we get a relief rally or another bloodbath.
Dear folks, i came across this article when i read The Trader's Journal recently, believe it or not, pls read on...
" Stage Four of the Kress cycle storm will occur around the fourth quarter of this year when the 6-year cycle peaks. You’ll notice by now that pattern has been established: each time a major yearly cycle peaks, the economy falters and we arrive one step closer to the eventual Kress Cycle Tsunami when then all the yearly cycles comprising the 120-year Grand Super cycle will be in the final “hard down” phase. This event hasn’t been seen since the 1890s, which catalyzed the industrial depression of that decade and saw the transformation of the U.S. from a primarily agrarian economy to an industrial one. "
www.pinnacledigest.com/blog/clif-droke/f...-kress-cycle-tsunami
Here's a positive dose of news fr Blg:
Vice President
Joe Biden
told Chinese Premier
Wen Jiabao
his government doesn’t need to worry about the safety of Treasuries as the world’s biggest overseas holder of U.S. debt.
“U.S. Treasuries we’re going to take care of very closely, not merely because China owns 8 percent of them; Americans own 85 percent,” he said when the two men met today in Beijing, where he is on the second day of a tour of China. “Very sincerely, I want to make clear you have nothing to worry about,” Biden said, adding he and Wen shared an “absolute and mutual confidence in the
U.S. economy
.”
Wen had earlier told Biden he had sent a clear message to reassure the Chinese people regarding the safety of Treasuries. Biden’s trip follows the first ever downgrade of
U.S. debt
by
Standard & Poor’s
, which said political divisions in
Washington
were preventing the country from tackling its fiscal deficit.
“I have absolute, unequivocal confidence in the strength and vitality and the growth of the American economy,” Biden said. “No one’s ever made money betting against America.”
According to Bloomberg news today, "Global stocks have lost more than $7.3 trillion in market value since July 26 as concern grew the U.S. may enter a recession as two rounds of government asset-purchases and record-low interest rates fail to entrench an economic recovery."
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Furthermore, i came across this phrase from The Economists article, "the BIG debt & the LOW political will" to deal with this crisis are definitely not good either.
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So dear folks, how is the market going to be good from now on? Don't be so naive to rush in to buy stocks whenever there are dips as some analysts or strategists may suggest so. Because u are likely to be catching “the falling knives” (people are selling & exit for good & we are buying for ???)
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As we can notice, from the share prices & their charts u will notice that most are moving downtrend. See SGX as a good example:
sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=S68.SI&t=1y&...=l&p=m200%2Cm50&a=&c
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So folks, stay away & better still out of the box for the time being & we are likely to be more happier than not. Wish all have a great weekend.
I am still sticking to the judgement that the worst will come to pass very soon with the STI testing 2600 in coming weeks. At that level, approximately 20% off the 3200 STI before the S&P send shockwaves would means that market is accounting for a POSSIBILITY that recession Might happens. If august data continue to be bleak, that the market will need to account for the recession that Will happens, and that will most probably drag the STI to the 2000 and 2100 levels. Another 20% fall. I did not use TA but compare the magnitude of falls to the Lehman brother collapse. If we do enter a recession, I expect the bottom to come to pass at STI 1700 the third 20% fall. Then truly, the great Singapore shares sale is on... While one should definitely read extensively to news to form their judgements, there is also too much noise in the news. My families and relatives would saying that I am too cautious when I ask them to wait before buying more blue chip shares and they kinda of "blame" me when they miss the 2720 bottom. I told them, look I expect STI to go to 2600 since 2800 cannot be defended, so I told them to start buying if they must. Only when the 2700 support is broken. (closer to2600). True enough, the few days when the STI went back to above 2800, there is no lack of "positive news" from bloomberg, Reuters etc... I was actually waiting to offload more shares if the climb continue, but alas, it's not to be and the climb is much short lived then I would wish to. For those who are risk averse, perhaps u can start bottom fishing with STI near 2100. But then, that will mean u believe that the recession is indeed unavoidable. I consider myself young and an high risk taker, I will be looking to adding to some shares if market fall heavily over the few days. I might be caught holding falling knives but I think I will recover nonetheless. Not a call to buy, as I am willing to stomach 20% or more loss. I look at the companies valuation and believe many are undervalued and some are potential multi-baggers. If I am wrong, then I wait for the great Singapore sale at 2100 to snap up blue chips.. Why 2600 and not 2100. I might be wrong but I believe the worst of euro problems comes from greece and Portugal. Spain and Italy are in bad shape but they will survive, given the political will And reforms made recently that are largely under- reported in this gloom and doom. US debt problems are a medium term problem, not an immediate problem, the crisis they have now is purely an confidence one. China and India growth will only fall significantly if and only if the recession does materialize, and domestic consumption can take up the slack from impact of just fear of recession. Yes, the banks in Europe can still go horribly wrong and US can double dip. But minus the gloom and doom reporting, data coming out from US is actually mixed but the ones that get reported and commented extensively are the negative ones. Well, no ventures no gains. Or no actions, no mistakes. Your take
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