MacGyver: thanks a lot for posting this report. Is there a link somewhere we can see the whole report? It is amazing (and unbelievable) to see analyst changing their so called target price so drastically, in this case cut by half from 0.59 to 0.29, while there is no fundamental change in the underlying business. I don\'t buy the argument of using peer valuation as benchmark. When the market turns, these analysts will begin to upgrade the target price. They never say what their view of the underlying intrinsic value is! However they must have some insight about the near future performance to put up this upgrade at this time. Not sure when their plant visit took place but if it is a recent event, it speaks well for the next few quarters\' performance.
Man Wah drop at last after holding out for so long. We may see some momentum to the downside as nervous investors throw in the towel. Cheap gets cheaper...should be a floor somewhere but it seems like every value stock is in a freefall as I write this.
High Point Market, held in High Point, North Carolina, is the largest furnishings industry trade show in the world. It started this year on Oct 20 and will last till Oct 26. I picked up this article from Furniture Today which says retailers are still buying but cautiously: \"High Point Market Fall 2008: Retailers buying, but cautiously October 23, 2008, by RAY ALLEGREZZA, Editor in Chief Part of my goal at this High Point Market is to talk to as many retailers as possible to see if I can get a clearer picture of what\'s going on at retail. Well, there\'s good news and bad news. The good news is that key retailers are here and I\'ve had a chance to have extended conversations with them. The bad news is that even after a number of in-depth conversations, I still don\'t have a better picture regarding retail activity. Maybe I shouldn\'t be too hard on myself, especially since most of the retailers I spoke with - and these are people at the top of their game - are just as uncertain as I am about when business will come back or what it may look like when it does. Our conversations confirmed a number of things, however. For openers, while they may be buying very carefully, retailers are placing orders here this week with an emphasis on youth, home entertainment, casual dining and mid-to-better upholstery. The consensus from the retailers is that despite what\'s going on with the economy, exciting new product will be the bus that drives the business out of the ditch. This product will have to have a very high perceived value, and be able to be delivered on a just-in-time basis. ...\"
www.furnituretoday.com/blog/Editor_s_Des...g_but_cautiously.php
Man Wah sell direct to these big US retailers and according to the company, \"there are not many sofa manufacturers in PRC who have the capacity and manufacturing standards to produce quality sofa sets at our prices.\" (Man Wah\'s announcement on 14 May 2008) Can Man Wah continue to grow their US market share even in this challenging environment? We will know soon when they release their Q2 FY09 result next month.
Latest on the biggest furniture trade show the world: Upholstery business soft at High Point Market Traffic, orders live up to low expectations Gary Evans -- Furniture Today, October 27, 2008 ...Despite the dismal economic backdrop coming into the market, some executives last week were breathing sighs of relief that they were still seeing customers. \"Through Wednesday, we were only seven dealers off from last October,\" said Del Starnes, president of high-end company Taylor King. \"It\'s shocking,\" he said, indicating that traffic was better than anticipated. \"There were some dealers who didn\'t come,\" he added, \"but there were also some new prospects.\"... see link:
www.furnituretoday.com/article/48966-Uph...igh_Point_Market.php
Success in securing orders in this important event will have a direct impact on Man Wah\'s top line in the next few quarters.
Congrats on your \"Forumer of the Month\" award. Man Wah should be announcing its 1H2009 by 15 Nov. Let\'s see how they fare in this difficult economic conditions. Koda and Cacola have already thrown in the towels. White flags flying high high. HTL semi-submerged already. Will Man Wah turn out to be a pleasant surprise?
Thanks, MacGyver. BTW, I\'ve managed to obtain the Daiwa report. I am told Man Wah will release their H1 result on 13 Nov during lunch break. I don\'t expect any drastic drop in their Q2 revenue since they needed to fulfill the orders placed in the last few months. (In their Q1 result announcement on 8 Aug, the management said \"the demand from Man Wah\'s US customers are extremely sufficient, with the Group yet to see any slowdown in their orders in 1Q FY2009\".) The most important thing in this H1 result will be the outlook from management.
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