Wilmar

I think the market has over-reacted to Wilmar's bad results. I am glad to see Citigroup issuing a positive report on Wilmar today.

Valuing Wilmar from a normalized perspective — We value Wilmar at a target price of S$4.08, equivalent to a PER of 14x its average earnings for the past 5 years and just below the stock's five-year mean. We believe that the stock has over-corrected on negative revisions due to the tough situation with oilseed margins in 2012 and should recover as we expect earnings momentum to recover in FY13. We see Wilmar sustaining itself as a key conduit for supplying
food into Asia.

Just to be balanced, there are negatives surrounding Wilmar, so be careful if you want to buy --and go in with your eyes open.

0535 GMT [Dow Jones]

Wilmar ( F34.SG ) is up 6.3% at S$3.19, the best-performing STI component amid the QE3-inspired rally, outperforming Noble's ( N21.SG ) 4.7% rise to S$1.34 and Olam's ( O32.SG ) 4.6% gain to S$2.07, as well as the STI's 1.2% rise.

"Within the whole space - Wilmar, Noble and Olam - a lot of people were shorting the stocks. It's partly the result of people covering shorts," says Vincent Fernando, an analyst at Religare Capital. "I still have a negative view on Wilmar," he says.

"The problem is they still have the issue of very high soy prices, which are going to impact upcoming quarters," he notes. "If commodities are all doing well right now and potentially doing better because of QE, that could be a negative," with the positives on the palm-oil side not compensating for the negatives on the China soy-crushing side, he says. Orderbook quotes suggest Wilmar's S$3.20 intraday high will cap gains. ( leslie....@dowjones.com )

For closure to my previous blog on Wilmar, I had taken profit above 10%. As for noble, pse read de relevant noble column on many people dun understand or know noble's business. About 70% of trades or revenue are energy related, balanced with the rest in agri and minerals. So, oil price is key here, unlike olam or Wilmar. Latter is consumables or related.

Wilmar - safe to enter now?


0626 GMT [Dow Jones] Wilmar ( F34.SG ) is up 4.3% at S$3.19 as players await further details from the Malaysian government on a CPO export-tax cut. "It's one of the better companies in terms of having feet in both Indonesia and Malaysia and (being) able to trade around any opportunities from that" on the potential tax change, an analyst says. He adds, the slightly improved soybean supply-side numbers from the U.S. were also positive for the stock as soybean availability is key for Wilmar. He notes the stock is starting from an overly depressed position and a number of players are "relooking" it after its selloff. In a note, DBS Vickers says Wilmar and Mewah ( MV4.SG ) will be the main beneficiaries of a bigger change in the export tax. The stock remains down around 36% year-to-date

Wilmar boss cannot stand it already, seeing the market got no confidence in the business, so he decided I will show you all by buying 1,634,000 shares today. It's about S$5 million but it's prob loose change to him.

...press release on 4 December 2012 posted on the website of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”) concerning the civil penalty enforcement action against Mr Goh Ing Sing, Head of the Company’s Plantations Division, and Mr Keu Haw Gee, Plantation Director for Kalimantan and Sumatra, for insider trading.

Mr Goh made a profit of approximately S$43,000 and Mr Keu made a profit of about S$2,000. Both of them have admitted to civil penalty liability for contravening Section 219(2)(a) of the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289). Mr Goh paid a civil penalty of S$110,000 to the MAS without court action and Mr Keu paid a civil penalty of S$50,000 to the MAS without court
action.