In my "Stock Picks for 2010" posted on 23 Dec 09, I had picked Hiap Hoe and Q&M. I am putting Hiap Hoe under a new thread so that I can update on this company's developments.
Here is what I wrote on 23 Dec: Hiap Hoe: Earnings and RNAV surge to come from projects built on cheap land:
1. Skyline 360: net saleable space: 123,192 sq ft, land cost: $756psf, other cost: $450psf, breakeven: $1,206psf, average selling price: $1,950psf, gross profit = ($1,950-1,206) X 123,192 = $91.65 million.
2. Waterscape: net saleable space: 213,437 sq ft, land cost: $609psf, other cost: $430psf, breakeven: $1,035, average selling price: $1,750psf, gross profit = ($1,750-$1,035) X 213,437 = $152.6 million.
3. The Aspine (60% stake in project): net saleable space: 79,800 sq ft, land cost: $1,870psf, other cost: $450psf, breakeven: $2,320, average selling price: $2,000psf, gross profit = ($2,000-$2,320) X 79,800 X 60% = $15.32m loss (60% share of total loss)
4. Hotel/SOHO project in Ah Hood Road (50% stake in project). Gross floor area = 426,000 sq ft. Company bought the land at $172 psf, compared to analyst estimate of fair value of $350-470psf.
To be conservative, we use a gross profit of only $250psf for this project. Gross profit = $250psf X 426,000 = $106.5 million, and Hiap Hoe's 50% stake in it is equal to $53.35m.
Total gross profit above = $282.28 million, compared with mkt cap of $166.4m. RNAV should surge to $1.08. Co will experience big earnings and RNAV growth next 1-3 years, with huge cash inflows in next 2-4 years. Co is one of the most exposed (in % terms of co's projects) to the Orchard Road vicinity, and if analysts touting growth in prime area prices are correct, then it will not have problem selling its Orchard area condos. Its hotel exposure will also benefit if the IRs take off next few years."
Updates on the company will follow in my next postings.