Big Tech leads the charge, Euro surges on ECB optimism, Commodities bounce back[

OANDA – Big Tech leads the charge, Euro surges on ECB optimism, Commodities bounce back

By Edward Moya

Most of the large-cap technology stocks rebounded sharply after the Nasdaq tentatively fell into correction territory. The three-day tech selloff has ended despite some hurdles with the race to find a COVID-19 vaccine. Many are spinning AstraZeneca's sudden halt to their vaccine trial as good news that developers are upholding their pledge to uphold the integrity of the scientific process of finding a vaccine. Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon and Google all surged as investors believed the tech bubble did not pop, it just had a little air let out.

Euro

The euro surged after a report noted that ECB policymakers are turning more confident with the region's recovery, surprising the majority of the FX world that was expected queues more stimulus is in likely this year at this week's policy decision. Last week, everyone was focused on the fragile recovery, falling core inflation and a strong euro, today the recovery seems to be intact and no more additional might not be necessary.

Oil

Crude prices bounced back after signs emerged that the dollar rebound was over and on expectations that the trajectory of global oil production suggests the market is still heading towards balance this year. supply side fundamentals continue to suggest oversupply concerns are a thing of the past. Oil's rebound was mainly a reflection of what happened in the stock market, so many will doubt if it will continue for the rest of the week.

WTI crude won't recapture the $40 level until energy traders feel more confident that the demand recovery remains intact.

Gold

A softer dollar allowed gold to resume its safe-haven roll as Chinese-American relations continue their downward spiral and after one of the world's top vaccine bets, AstraZeneca paused human trials of its experimental coronavirus vaccine. Demand for gold remains intact, but in order for the rally to continue, the dollar needs to resume weakening. Gold will continue to benefit from signs that stimulus trade is not going away anytime soon, so all eyes will be on the ECB. The ECB meeting is a live one as investors are not completely confident today's sources report will hold true that they won't signal more accommodation will be needed before the end of the year. After the dust settles from tomorrow's meeting gold could remain constructive as a more optimistic ECB could provide a general strong risk-on trading day. Gold's longer-term outlook still screams bullishness, but the road will remain choppy and violent.

Edward Moya Edward Moya
Senior Market Analyst, New York, OANDA