Lippo Mall result will be out shortly ... 24 July 2020. Likely to be bad.
Despite the expected poor results, i am vested in the company for the long term n for dividends. Am expecting capital gains cum excellent dividend yield 1 to 2 years down the road.
Below are some datas on the company' s historical dividend payout:
1. year 2017 - 3.52 cts
2. year 2018 - 2.54 cts
3. year 2019 - 2.01 cts
4. 2020 to date - 0.64
Company is committed to distribute 90% of distributable income.
I believe that once the pandemic is over n situations normalize, the company would be able to a reinstate its historical dividend distributions of 90%. The dividend to be distributed is likely to be above 2.0 cts per share, which give a yield of more than 15%. base on current price of 13.1 cts.
Pls do your own dyodd. I could be wrong in my assessment.
As expected, the 2nd quarter result was bad. Moving forward the next quarter result should be much better now that most of the malls are open.
The distribution per unit (DPU) of 0.11 cents was better than expected.
1st quarter DPU was 0.12 cents
2nd quarter DPU - 0.11 cents
3rd n 4th quarter should be much better given the improvements in revenue n profits.
To date, the half year dividend yield is close to 2.0% base on current price of 12.3 cents.
With increasing DPU in the 3rd n 4th quarter, i expect the full year DPU to be around 1.0 cent. This give a full year dividend yield of around 8.0 % ... 1.0 / 12.3 = 8.1%.
The DPU of 1.0 cent for the full year my personal estimate n i could be wrong.
Dividend yield:
As a norm and under normal circumstances, Lippo Mall Trust dividend per unit (DPU) had never been below 2.0 cents. There was a year when the DPU was as high as 3.5 cents. On the assumption that when the Covid 19 situation normalize, the DPU could be back to at least 2.0 cents per unit. With 2.0 cents per unit the dividend yield is 16.2%
1st quarter DPU was 0.12 n 2nd Quater was 0.11. This gives a half year DPU of 0.23 cents. On price of 12.4, the dividend yield for 6 mths work out to be 1.85%.
For the 3rd n 4th quarters the revenue n profit should go up as most of the shops are now open. As such, the DPU should go up w it. My estimate for the 2nd half year DPU is likely to be around 0.6 cents. The full dividend would therefore be: 0.23 + 0.6 = 0.83. On current price of 12.4 cents, the dividend yield for the year
would then be: 0.83 / 12.4 = 6.69%
Capital Gain
The current average occupancy rate has reached 88.2%. This is a big jump in occupancy rate, compared to the earlier restriction period in March to end May. The malls are already seeing improvement in footfall. This means higher revenue n income.
Before March 2020, Lippo Mall was never traded below 18.0 cents. In most years the trading range was normally above 20.0 cents to a high of 40+ cents. Rationally speaking, this implies that, should things normalize to the pre Covidc conditions, the price for Lippo Mall should move back to the 20.0 cents range.
I am just sharing my thoughts on the above n i could be wrong. If you are interested, pls do your own dyodd.
4 May ' 17 - 1Q - DPU 0.89
3 Aug ' 17 - 2Q - DPU 0.80
2 Nov ' 17 - 3Q - DPU 0.86
13 Feb ' 18 - 4Q - DPU 0.79
Full year - 3.34 cents
3 May ' 18 - 1Q - DPU 0.67
2 Aug ' 18 - 2Q - DPU 0.59
9 Nov ' 18 - 3Q - DPU 0.49
22 Feb ' 19 - 4Q - DPU 0.30
Full year - 2.05 cents
22 Apr ' 19 - 1Q - DPU 0.55
1 Aug ' 19 - 2Q - DPU 0.60
3 Nov ' 19 - 3Q - DPU 0.56
19 Feb ' 20 - 4Q - DPU 0.52
Full year - 2.23 cents
30 Apr ' 20 - 1Q - DPU 0.12
24 July ' 20 - 2Q - DPU 0.11
To date - 0.23 cents
Company is committed to distribute 90% of profit under normal situation.
Covid 19 has affected the company' s profit due to closure of shopping mall.
Shopping Malls have re-open since late May when restrictions were lifted.
92.4% of lettable space have resumed their operation.
Assuming a 2.0 cents dividend in a normal year, the dividend yield is a high of
17.0% - 2 / 11.7 = 17.0.
