Someone told me that even in STI's darkest days in March 2009 when STI was 1450, DBS was $6+, UOB was $8+, Kepcorp was $3+, Kepland was $1 etc, he said NOL was still at a very resilient 95 cts during that March 2009 STI-Darkest-Days-period.
Do you guys think NOL will have very good price upside if one is prepared to hold for long-term, meaning hold for up to 5 years
I noticed this NOL stock had been around for many
many years, NOL highest was about $7 a few years ago.
Do you guys think NOL can rise back to at least $2 within the next 5 years?
NOL has weak balance sheet and poor operating records. The fact that they need to sell their HQ and lease back speak volume of their execution capabilities when major liners are still raking in profits, although smaller.
If you think the sector is turning around soon, yes, definitely it is a good cyclical play for the longer term, as shipping is a strategic business, and it is highly unlikely that Temseask will leave it to die...
But if you are buying, make sure you have enough ammo to accumulate if it fall further, we do not know when the shipping cycle will bottom.
The might be rights issues, placement etc..
Also remember to get off the ship when the market turn, it is not something you can go sleep with
(not vested, I rather buy YZJ for exposure to shipping sector, although there will be a time lag in recovery, since it is in shippbuilding sector)
In our FY14 forecasts, NOL’s ROE is still unattractive to shareholders at 3.0% and will thus trade at a discount. We derive a fair value of S$0.97 (previous: S$0.95) based on a forward PBR of 0.93x, which is at 1.5 s.d. below its historical two-year average. We upgrade to HOLD on valuation grounds.
Neptune Orient Lines (NOL), suffered the ignominy yesterday of announcing it has come close to being placed on a watch-list by the Singapore Exchange (SGX) as it has recorded pre-tax losses for three consecutive financial years. Only NOL's market capitalisation is keeping it off the embarrassing list, according to SGX rulings.
One big question is the economic and shipping industry condition during the global market crash of late 2008 to march 2009 better than currently 2014??
Becos the strange part is why is NOL's share price higher during that global stock market doomsday period during Oct 2008 till march 2009 period compared to currently.
During that Oct 2008 till March 2009 STI 1400s days, NOL only very briefly fell a few cents below $1 and very swiftly rose back to above $1.10 when STI was still 1400-1500.
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