Link below is an interesting article. I think if one can’t grow his/her share investment at more than 5% compound per yr to keep up with inflation , then its a fail ( An investment at 5% yearly compound will roughly double in 15 yrs ). Those who only started share investment in early 2009 will off course think they are financial geniuses LOL.
As a well known technical trader, it is no wonder that Daryl Guppy will say that, but it is simply not true.
Long term index investing is far from buying randomly once, and do nothing for the next 15 years.
A better test would be to do a dollar cost averaging investment over a moving period of say 10-15 years over the past 40 years for example, and then see how many times have the portfolio gave negative returns, of course, dividends reinvested. This is because index investor invests without detailed knowledge of the value of what he buys and need DCA to diversify away his risks of "not knowing".
A value approach would give a much better performance than this, market cap biased index approach to long term investing. One way to confirm that is to track the return of a value-weighted index over a moving period of 15 years over the past 40 years.
It would be interesting to see him disclose his portfolio's CAGR over the past 30 years, to see if his technical approach even matches the performance of the index, after fees.
So far I have NEVER seen a technical trader disclose his overall performance over a prolonged period of time, or a pure technical analysis based fund.
If the technical, fast in fast out approach is really better than long term investing, I wonder why is that so?
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