relaxing wrote: Hi Observer2 – Ya, this unloved snail was trading below PE of 5 for so long but has now turned into a rabbit. Q1 results met expections. My grouse is that 60% of its revenue is from its parent Swiber. Looks like the US rally still has legs, so counter should still have some upside. My views only, dyodd.
Relaxing – I would not be too concerned over the 1Q13 results where 60% of the revenue was derived from its parent, Swiber. The data for the last 3 financial years clearly showed that Kreuz is now becoming less dependent on its parent for revenue –
FY10 – 45% of revenue from Swiber Group
FY11 – 40%
FY12 – 38.3%
1Q13 – 60% [ 3 more Quarters to go]
Kreuz jumped a further 5 cents today to close at 67.5 cts [after hitting UOBKH’s target price of 68 cents]. Somewhat unbelievable performance for an unloved snail that was resting at 51.5 cts level on 2 May 2013.
Observer2 – Didn’t expect it to shoot up so much late afternoon yesterday, hitting my target, hence sold off. My own fair value at this juncture is abt PE of 7. Anyway, its difficult to sell at peak. Will consider buying back if price drops or new catalyst, otherwise too bad. Good luck everyone.
Relaxing – Kreuz is my core holding stock for as long as it is on the growth path and its PE is under 10 times. My past experience taught me that the big money from stock are easier made through having good core holdings and taking just a little more calculated risk if one is not an expert trader.
I am a dumb trader and I find it difficult to resist trading now and then - but now trading strictly or only if I consider the winning odds are heavily on my side. I bought 100 lots of Kreuz for trading on 2 May 2013 at 52 cts in anticipation of the release of a good set of 1Q13 results. The results were not as good as I had expected but surprisingly, the stock undergone a re-rating. Just like you, I believe the stock had risen high enough and sold off at 70 cts yesterday (14 May). This could well be my best trade for the year.
Observer2 – I am lousy trader too as can’t monitor market all day , hence don’t trade much. But I trade better in a bull run , mainly opportunistic on counters in my watchlist ( ie bought Eratat when they announced share buyback and sold abt 2 wks after EGM approval ).
As for Kreuz, I collected cheap last yr , so not sure if this is considered trading ? I have a habit of selling part or all when counter hits my target or cut loss quickly to redeploy capital elsewhere. This strategy works well for me over the years, but I always remind myself that luck plays a part too. Kruez is only small % of my core holding.
As for its parent Swiber, I was surprised that it doubled its EPS yoy in 1Q ann last night. Though I have sold Swiber yrs ago for various reasons , it’s always in my watchlist. Hence I bought back at 65 cts this morning as its YE13 annualized PE is only 4. Moved from unloved snail to papa snail LOL. Don’t follow blindly but dyodd to gauge risk/reward. My views only.
Observer 2 – Not sure if you have bought back Kreuz when it went below 70 cts recently ? I have now sold my Swiber as it has reached my TP. I think SGX is presently in correction mode, likely will be mild. My views only. Good luck to those still holding.
