Guys, Thanks for the exchange, it\'s quite insightful to know how you guys re-balance. For myself, I re-balance mainly by averaging down my cost for companies which I am already vested, assuming fundamentals have not deteriorated to a point which gives me the reason to divest. Thus far, I see a lot of fear + panic and probably a lot of funds redemptions as well. This creates fire-sale asset prices which we as investors should take advantage of, PROVIDED we get our facts and reasoning right. Of course, as investors we do occasionally make mistakes (even WB does !), but the idea is to learn from them and minimize the loss on each mistake and emerge a wiser investor.
Hi Musicwhiz, Rebalancing can only occur is there is a real good reason to do so...in our minds at least. Celestial was a real oversight for me..a painful one but as long as the money is put to good use...hopefully, we can recover the losses plus more All the S-Chips on my coverage at current prices least a relatively simple 10 baggers by 2014. 1. China Milk 2. China Zaino 3. China Taisan 4. Li Heng 5. Sino TechFibre 6. Man Wah 7. China Hongxing My assumptions are as follows. 1. Bottom line CAGR of 15% from FY08 levels 2. FPE of 18 3. If there is no corporate governance issues and they survive the meltdown. 4. Market share gains over their smaller and weaker competitors
im all lost & beaten, could this be a final knockout blow for me? im not sure, only time can tell whether i will come back or in a coma forever. U mean all your positions in Celestial have been given up? To your opinion, it is as good as gone??
I am pretty much in the same boat as you are Sean. I have however not given up hope as this is probably the moment where everything is at it\'s darkness and will probably remain so or get worse till 2010 earliest. Have faith my friend, even in the great depression the world eventually recovered although it took more than 5 years...and it WILL not happen here although everyone is talking themselves in it. If the world is going into a depression, all world governments will come together and print trillions of dollars to flood the market. If everyone is doing it, there is no worries about currency depreciation against one another. Well, gold will probably go up but who cares if the inflation threat comes back as long as deflation is stop dead and growth is resumed. Celestial for me at least is \'too risky\'. Good as gone in my books. I rather watch from the outside. Beauty China took a huge beating yesterday as it was rumored that the owner wants to sell out even at seemingly low valuations. I really cannot understand the reason why apart from the fact that maybe the books are not as they are and he wants to get as much as he can while he can. This will send another huge selloff for the S- Chips... Gone 1. Ferro 2. Fibre Risky 1. Beauty China?? 2. Celestial?? 3. ???? The S-chips that survive this meltdown will be very big winners. It is high risk/high return...problem is we are not sure which one is next to fall.
you are right. Nobody really knows what is what now, except for the insiders management. I suspect that most of the china companies\' books are not as what they look to be, which is why you are right that even the chairman of Beauty China wants to sell stakes. All these just look really bad and a domino effect on the others, the bad thing about S-chips. Looking at fundamentals now just does not give a clue. Its almost like hitting blindly, i think even a monkey at this moment who knows nothing about stocks/companies could just get lucky & hit a homerun. I am just helpless that I was too impatient from the start, and has not waited just a while longer & could have avoided that KO punch. I had expected an early recovery but thinmgs just gets worse and worse, especially so the china chips.
