Strong Stock Rebound, Green Order Boom — And US Port Fees That Can’t Touch YANGZIJIANG

It's been only about 9 months since the bad news that sunk Yangzijiang Shipbuilding's stock -- from $3.30 in February to $1.88 within 6 weeks.

The US proposed steep port fees on Chinese-built and operated vessels, aimed at curbing China's dominance in global shipbuilding.

Markets panicked, fearing a drought of orders for Chinese yards.

Fast forward, and the stock has recovered to ~$3.50 recently, as shipbuilding orders chalked up for Yangzijiang and other Chinese yards, whose competitive pricing reflects greater efficiency and lower costs.

Yangzijiang's 3Q2025 business update did not provide financial performance figures.

Its massive orderbook stood at USD22.8bn as at end 3Q, providing multi-year revenue visibility (through FY2030).

Both DBS Group Research and CGS International maintain a positive investment recommendation (BUY/ADD).

orderbook 11.25

But DBS and CGS have markedly different price targets due to valuation and time horizon.

CGS analysts, Lim Siew Khee and Meghana Kande, in fact raised their target price (to S$4.51) compared to DBS analyst Ho Pei Hwa maintaining hers (SGD3.80).

This difference stems largely from CGS rolling forward its valuation time horizon to CY27F and applying a 10x P/E multiple. They see Yangzijiang's current valuation as being "undemanding" relative to peers.

Here are some metrics for comparison:

	DBS [Analyst: Ho Pei Hwa]	CGS Int'l [Analysts: LIM/KANDE]
Call	BUY	ADD
Target Price	SGD3.80	S$4.51 (Raised from S$3.90)
Upside/ Downside	Upside 8.6% from S$3.50. Attractive dividend yield (4-5%).	38.3% upside (from S$3.26). "Undemanding valuations" (8x CY26F P/E vs. peers’ 17x).
Financial Assumptions (Key)	Forward P/E: 8.5x; ROE: 28.1%.	FY25F/FY26F gross margin: 35% (raised from 32%/30%). CY26F P/E: 7.4x.

Agreement on Margin Drivers and Execution: Both DBS and CGS analysts expect margins will expand due to the company's focus on high-value, high-specification vessels, particularly dual-fuel/green vessels.

The CGS analysts raised their gross margin forecast to 35% for FY25F/26F, supported by low and locked-in steel costs.

CGS expected numbers are:

Item	Dec-23A	Dec-24A	Dec-25F	Dec-26F	Dec-27F
Revenue (Rmb ‘m)	24,112	26,542	28,203	33,958	36,515
Net Profit (Rmb ‘m)	4,102	6,834	8,319	9,519	9,895
Normalised EPS (Rmb)	1.04	1.68	2.11	2.41	2.50
Normalised EPS Growth	56.6%	61.7%	25.4%	14.4%	4.0%
FD Normalised P/E	17.14	10.80	8.45	7.39	7.10
Dividend/share (Rmb)	0.34	0.83	0.98	0.94	0.98
Dividend Yield	1.94%	3.51%	4.61%	5.28%	5.44%
ROE	21.3%	28.1%	28.9%	27.8%	24.6%
Source: CGS

Competitive Risks and Lower Order Expectations

CGS provides a more detailed risk assessment regarding future order flow, noting stiffer competition from second-tier Chinese yards with available delivery slots for 2026/2027.

LimSiewKhee2020 Lim Siew Khee, CGS analystConsequently, CGS lowers its order forecast for 2025F and 2026F -- but ups its target price from $3.90 to $4.51.

DBS Research focuses primarily on the recent rebound in YTD order wins (USD2.17bn) without revising future forecast expectations.