ASMPT had a weak 3Q, possibly reflecting a bottom in the semiconductor cycle. See the table below: |
Research house |
Call |
Target |
Profit forecast |
|
|
2023 |
2024 |
||
Macquarie
|
Neutral |
62.66 |
662 |
951 |
DBS |
Hold |
71 |
1210 |
1976 |
Haitong
|
Neutral |
68 |
832 |
1406 |
Nomura
|
Buy |
90 |
804 |
1118 |
Mizuho Securities |
Neutral |
74 |
797 |
1561 |
CCB International
|
Neutral |
74 |
717 |
1352 |
HSBC |
Hold |
72 |
863 |
1853 |
JP Morgan
|
Overweight |
82 |
847 |
1797 |
Morgan Stanley |
Overweight |
88 |
833 |
1630 |
BNP Paribas
|
Buy |
90 |
925 |
1307 |
BofA Global
|
Buy |
100 |
786 |
2383 |
UBS |
Buy |
108 |
840 |
2123 |
Average |
82 |
843 |
1621 |
|
Compiled by NextInsight |
Let's see what analyst reports at both extremes of price targets say:
• UBS, the most optimistic of brokers covering ASMPT, titled its report positively "Semi solutions demand stabilising with upside from advanced packaging."
The new price target is based on an unchanged 21x 2024E PE, near its mid-cycle average. "We reiterate Buy on expectations of a cyclical recovery for the SEMI business, expanding TCB (Thermo Compression Bonding) and HB (Hybrid Bonding) opportunities for AP (Advanced Packaging)." Also looking up for ASMPT, says UBS, is structural growth for auto SMT (Surface Mount Technology) driven by electric vehicles and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). |
• Macquarie, most pessimistic about ASMPT, headlined its report: "Very weak result; weak outlook". It said ASMPT's 3Q23 was a "large miss" and was anything but impressed with the 4Q revenue guidance ("weak"). Thus, it lowered 2023E revenue by -2% and net income by -37%. Even for 2024, it brandished its knife, slashing forecast net income -46%. Its new HK$62.66 target is based on 1.6x 2024E book value. "We lower the PB multiple by 1.5 standard deviation given weak margins driven by a poor mix with low visibility on future recovery." |
Finally, this is what ASMPT itself says about its outlook:
"Powered by its unique broad-based portfolio, the Group remains optimistic about its prospects and growth potential over the long term.
"This confidence is supported by long-term structural trends of automotive electrification, smart factories, green infrastructure, 5G, IoT, and highperformance computing fuelled by generative AI growth.
"To support this increasingly digitally connected world, more organisations are preparing for a future with increasingly dynamic global supply chains.
"The Group believes these factors will lead to an increase in overall capex spend.
"In the short term, weak economy and end-market electronics demand will continue to prolong the industry inventory adjustment and constrain the capital spending of our customer base."