AEM: What Maybank expects of 2Q2021 performance & beyond

Excerpts from Maybank report

Analyst: Gene Lih Lai

Entering into the 2Q21 earnings season, we remain Positive on the Singapore tech sector.

On the back of strong WFE spending momentum, we believe UMS and Frencken have room to beat on results.

While we are cautious towards risks of earnings disappointment for AEM and VMS (Venture), we are positive on their prospects over the next 12 months and beyond, based on currently visible drivers.

We continue to see supply-side risks as key ones that could curb earnings performance as we move throughout 2021.

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Company	2Q21E PATMI range	Basis for 2Q21 estimate/ Thesis/ Risks
AEM	SGD14-16m (-22% YoY at midpoint)	Basis: We expect 2Q21 to be sequentially stronger than 1Q21 (PATMI: SGD13.2m). Upside drivers: We believe stronger than expected cloud spending recovery, and/ or materially accretive M&As are upside drivers in 2H21 and beyond. Risks: As AEM has reiterated that new generation of HDMT equipment will undergo production ramp-up in late 3Q21 through 2022, we do not see demand as the key risk as we enter a new earnings cycle. Rather, we see any unforeseen supply side bottlenecks as the key risk. From a stock trading perspective, AEM has gained 20% since it bottomed out in mid-May. We do not rule out profit taking in the near term, especially if the market perceives 2Q21 results to be a non-event, or if 2Q21 results disappoint. We would recommend buying on dips if our thesis remains intact.

Full report here.

AEM: What Maybank expects of 2Q2021 performance & beyond

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