Loquat Fan contributed this article to NextInsight (after perusing Sino Grandness' just-released 2013 annual report)


graphic_ar2013Sino Grandness achieved RMB2.27 billion in sales of beverages, canned vegetables and fruits in 2013.
Montage: Annual report 2013
IN ITS 2013 full-year results announcement dated 26 Feb 2014, Sino Grandness provided the gross profit, but not the net profit, of its main subsidiary, Garden Fresh.

This was disappointing to investors like me who are looking to estimate the IPO value of Garden Fresh using its 2013 result.

As background, in 4Q last year, Sino Grandness engaged professionals, including investment bankers and lawyers, to start work on the listing of Garden Fresh on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Garden Fresh, which produces loquat and other fruit juices, had issued convertible bonds in 2011 and 2012, and bond holders are likely to convert their lendings into Garden Fresh shares when the listing is secured.

For minimum dilution -- ie, 25% of the shares of Garden Fresh to be issued to the bond holders -- Garden Fresh had to achieve net profits of RMB 70m in 2011, RMB 140m in 2012 and RMB 250m in 2013.

Sino Grandness has indicated that the three profit targets have been met but did not publicise the figures.

Investors of Sino Grandness have been hoping that the Hong Kong listing will unearth the real worth of Garden Fresh.

The IPO valuation will be based on its projected net profit in 2014 which, in turn, will derive to a great extent from its 2013 net profit.

Fortunately, page 106 (see below) of the just-released 2013 annual report provides the pre-tax profit of Garden Fresh: It was RMB 367.6 m in 2013 and RMB 222.9 m in 2012.
 
beverage_ar2013 
 ♦ Garden Fresh stake worth S$ 729 m?

Given that the tax rate of group profit of Sino Grandness in 2013 was 28%, applying this same rate to Garden Fresh's pre-tax profit will give rise to a net profit of RMB 264 m.

As this profit was derived after taking into account RMB 10m expenses in connection with the proposed listing of Garden Fresh, the recurring net profit in 2013 would have been RMB 270 m (after taking account of the after-tax effect of the RMB 10 m IPO expense).

If Garden Fresh’s net profit in 2014 is expected to be 20% higher than in 2013, then the projected profit of RMB 324 m will be the basis for the IPO valuation.

(By the way, 20% is a modest target as Garden Fresh is still on a strong growth path that will last for several years, I believe.)

If Garden Fresh is to be listed at a conservative 15 times PER (against the average of 29 for beverage companies listed on the HK Exchange), it will be valued at RMB 4,860 m.

Sino Grandness' 75% stake in Garden Fresh will then be worth RMB 3,645 m, or S$ 729 m, or S$ 1.21 per Sino Grandness share.

It follows that Sino Grandness' current share price of 72 cents has yet to factor in the imminent unlocking of the value of Garden Fresh.

Recent story: "Why SINO GRANDNESS is my 2nd Favourite Stock (after Straco)"

See also Bloomberg's 2013 story: Sino Grandness to List Garden Fresh Unit in Hong Kong or Taiwan 

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