Main reference: Story in Sinafinance
WHEN CONSULTING a doctor, it's best to get a second opinion... or three.
The same goes for investing decisions.
Below are eight expert takes on where China shares are headed and what investors should be on the lookout for.
First of all, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, chief tracker of A- and B-shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, hit a year-to-date low on Wednesday.
It was bad timing as China’s stock markets are closed Thursday and Friday in observance of Tomb Sweeping Festival.
A-share listed fertilizer play Sichuan Meifeng hopes to ride the government's wave of support for food price stability and crop yield increases. Photo: Sichuan Meifeng
So it’s only natural that investors would like some guidance on where the Index might be headed following the four-day trading hiatus.
Go Sunn Investment said the Shanghai Composite should rise over the short term to flirt with the six month moving average, saying the Index has “reasonably strong support” at current levels.
Some rangebound volatility over the next few sessions is to be expected and investors shouldn’t panic on a day-to-day basis as the Index is just trying to regain its footing for another sustained ascent.
Jinzheng Consulting believes post-holiday market sentiment is yearning for a sector or theme to break out of the trading doldrums and tentativeness and breathe vitality back into sharebuying.
Daily trading turnover has been increasingly anemic of late and investors are collectively hoping for a flag to rally around sooner rather than later.
Looking back a year ago, the Index also suffered consecutive losses leading up to Tomb Sweeping Festival but bounced back when Monday rolled around again.
And now that new property policies are less onerous than expected and hints of a thaw in the A-share IPO freeze are in the air, next week could usher in a newfound market confidence.
Eight Chinese market watchers are split on where PRC shares might be headed post-Tomb Sweeping Festival. Source: Yahoo Finance
With the new government in place, macro-policies set to take effect and the market idle for four days, it’s not out of the question to expect the Index to perhaps test the 2,400 level sooner rather than later.
QianKun Investment said that a sudden tightening of volatility may be easier on the nerves, but it is also a sign of weaker market sentiment.
The recent surge in annual reporting activity has left many investors with cold feet, given the relatively high number of listcos that failed to perform as expected.
But now that most A-share firms have already announced their 2012 results, there is less in the way of motivation to move daily trading volume of Index volatility one way or the other over the short term.
The consultancy suggests that investors exhibit more patience and caution than usual over the near term, and pay particular attention to whether or not the small-scale return of bird flu in coastal China morphs into something more serious.
Beijing Shouzheng is more bullish on a return to aggressive daily turnover activity following the four-day market timeout.
However, upside migration is limited at the 2,250 level over the short term, the consultancy added.
GF Securities acknowledges that things aren’t all that rosy on the capital front.
It said that investment funds were still either staying put or gradually pulling out until things took a turn for the better.
To that extent, GF expects more corrections post-holiday.
China Merchants Securities is more upbeat, and said there are few fundamentals supporting a continued gradual downturn for the benchmark Index.
It pointed to less-strict-than-expected macro-policy on real estate developers as a reason to pay attention to property plays.
Soochow Securities is upbeat on environmental theme counters going forward given the new government’s repeated statements in support of the sector, while JF Info says it for one is keen on picking up recent sharp droppers who were pummeled by weaker than anticipated earnings statements.
See also:
China Shares To Watch In April
