Hi Potatolvr, hope you don't mind that I reply you on Tuan Sing on this thread, instead of the CES one.
I like and own Tuan Sing, although it is not yet in my core holdings at the moment. I have not attended their AGMs but I was a bit cautious because of what shareholders discussed about them in forums.
Nevertheless, I have gone through their annual report and I like what I saw, especially its exposure to the office market, good sales at its residential biz, and exposure to Aussie market.
My PC is sent for repair so I have little precise info to share here. However, I like the fact (though I have not examined in detail) that they are going to own (if I didn't read wrongly) 100% of its Aussie hotel unit now (as in last night's announcement).
The Perth site, I think, also has redevelopment potential by the side of the hotel. Approvals are gotten for 2 tall blocks, but I am not sure if this is long ago. I am watching the sales of a residential project nearby for indication of interest in high rise apts in Perth.
My slight "disinterest" in Tuan Sing is its dividend payout, which if increased, will see me more keen on the counter. Otherwise, RNAV, earnings, exposure to office and Australia, detailed annual report, etc are all positives for the stock.
Oxely's cancellation of its stock split proposal is negative, as it removed what I thought would have been a catalyst for its stock price. But the move appears to make it clearer what SGX mean when it set the 50ct ruling for stock split: ie, it's not at the time of approval (ie, if a stock's price drops post approval, and the min 50ct ruling is not going to be met, the deal can still be off).
In view of that, I like Oxley less now. I have reduced my holdings further (having taking some profit off the table during the rise), in favour of other prop counters with higher discount to RNAV.
Meanwhile, Ley Choon's big loss may lead to a small dent in Hiap Hoe's good books. Luckily, any damage here would appear small relative to Hiap Hoe's assets, with a simple rise in revaluation of its Superbowl shop lots more than repairing the Ley Choon dent.
A more significant development would be the bulk sale of its Treasure at Balmoral condo, which I hope will happen, at a reasonable price.
RNAV ~ $2.50 (see computation below)
Current share price ~$0.65
Book NAV ~$1.14 (End June 2014)
Outstanding share ~ 269 mil (relatively small base but there are warrants exercisable at 70 cents). There are 44,725,994 outstanding convertibles as at 30 June 2014 which entitle the holders to subscribe for new ordinary shares at the exercise price of S$0.70 each.
Are the following reasons responsible for it being undervalued?
1. low cash level & high gearing?
2. low dividend (unfriendly to minority holders?)
3. unsold units in a number of developments?
4. slow turnover in project development
5. The most important reason - lack of dynamic leadership??
In yet another sign of undervaluation in property developer stocks,
(1) Lee Kim Tah’s substantial shareholders yesterday offered to take the company private.
(2) KSH has a new substantial shareholder who crossed the 5% stake level and thus had to report to SGX for the first time. Yip Sau Leung, who now owns 20.96 million KSH shares (5.06%), is an associate professor in Economics at NTU.
KSH and CES are 2 of my favourite property developer counters, and both now have big minority shareholders who own more than 5% stakes in each of them. Apart from KSH’s obvious consistent stream of earnings over the next 3 years from its stakes in 11 well-sold projects in Singapore, the company may also strike it big in GaoBeiDian, China. This huge site (30 min express train to Beijing) will be acquired gradually over many years, and is a KSH-led JV with Oxley, Heeton, Lian Beng etc. I believe this project is like building a whole township, and involves many future commercial and residential buildings. The first launch at this a site is expected in 1H 2015.
I expect KSH to pay 3ct dividend for FY2015 (ending March 2015), with the interim payment to be declared next month when 1H results are out. EPS could be around 9-10ct for the full year, on par with last year. Meanwhile, based on my estimates, its Fernvale JV with CES and Heeton could net about $25-30m of gross profit.
OCBC has a buy call on KSH but analyst coverage on this good company is still minimal.
Prof Yip was one of the shareholders who spoke at KSH's AGM. I remember he was encouraging management to do a share buyback programme similar to CES which will help bring the share price above 60cents. He said that he will buy more shares everytime the price falls. Looks like he is putting his money where his mouth is!
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